SA125
FINAL
103POR
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San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
7-2
125
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
6-2
103
Market line: San Antonio Spurs -5.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 117.5 – Portland Trail Blazers 112.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
228

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 228.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
29.1
Dylan HarperSG
18.7
Stephon CastleSG
15.4
De'Aaron FoxPG
14.4
Devin VassellSG
11.6
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
23.3
Damian LillardPG
20.4
Ja MorantPG
15.8
Toumani CamaraPF
14.3
Donovan ClinganC
12.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
SA
118.40
T-6th / 30
Points
POR
119.33
3rd / 30
SA
48.50
3rd / 30
Rebounds
POR
45.22
10th / 30
SA
26.80
T-11th / 30
Assists
POR
26.22
16th / 30
SA
99.56
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
POR
99.48
16th / 30
SA
52.41%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
POR
56.19%
3rd / 30
SA
10.99%
2nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
POR
14.14%
23rd / 30
SA
28.88%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
POR
29.52%
9th / 30
SA
.304
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
POR
.372
2nd / 30
SA
118.92
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
119.95
3rd / 30
SA
108.58
5th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
POR
114.37
16th / 30
SA
+10.35
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
POR
+5.58
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.62%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.33%5th/30
12.4519th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.195th/30
36.1621st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.663rd/30
34.44%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.60%13th/30
29.438th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.3520th/30
55.644th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.0030th/30
52.89%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.96%2nd/30
22.705th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.684th/30
27.927th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.832nd/30
81.29%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.39%26th/30
13.2610th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.4014th/30
35.465th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0610th/30
7.9319th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.3725th/30
7.031st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8018th/30
12.863rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.4223rd/30
20.997th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5616th/30
Opponent
43.57%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.73%10th/30
12.3512th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.956th/30
33.551st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0812th/30
36.83%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.23%7th/30
27.1214th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3616th/30
57.0530th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.8214th/30
47.54%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.85%15th/30
17.286th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.7927th/30
21.495th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.2623rd/30
80.37%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.19%29th/30
11.4512th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7313th/30
32.6417th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.603rd/30
7.435th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9419th/30
4.9213th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.245th/30
13.7626th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8525th/30
21.8012th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.2428th/30
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