ORL119
FINAL
126GS
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Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
2-6
119
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
6-3
126
Market line: Golden State Warriors -7.0, total 220.5 · Model expected score: Orlando Magic 106.8 – Golden State Warriors 113.7

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
245

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (220.5). The real combined score was 245.

O/U LINE 210
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 230
30% over ✓70% under
O/U LINE 240
14% over ✓86% under
O/U LINE 250
5% over95% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Franz WagnerSF
19.6
Desmond BaneSG
17.5
Anthony BlackPG
15.2
Wendell Carter Jr.C
14.3
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
29.9
Yaxel LendeborgSF
21.0
Brandin PodziemskiSG
15.9
Gui SantosPF
7.2
Will RichardSG
5.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ORL
107.00
28th / 30
Points
GS
118.60
5th / 30
ORL
41.89
25th / 30
Rebounds
GS
43.70
19th / 30
ORL
26.44
T-13th / 30
Assists
GS
28.20
4th / 30
ORL
98.46
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
99.22
19th / 30
ORL
52.55%
18th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
56.23%
2nd / 30
ORL
15.37%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.29%
24th / 30
ORL
26.74%
16th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
29.58%
8th / 30
ORL
.275
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.314
7th / 30
ORL
108.68
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
119.54
4th / 30
ORL
118.04
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
114.50
17th / 30
ORL
-9.37
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+5.04
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.52%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.92%8th/30
13.8813th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.131st/30
40.6310th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.829th/30
34.17%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.51%1st/30
24.6026th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.4928th/30
45.8225th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.7626th/30
53.69%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.52%18th/30
17.8323rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.176th/30
23.8120th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.2110th/30
74.88%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.48%7th/30
11.7416th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7013th/30
30.8124th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.3521st/30
7.4523rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.279th/30
3.9526th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0413th/30
17.6028th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.4325th/30
23.0221st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6818th/30
Opponent
48.22%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.27%18th/30
13.0915th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3017th/30
34.656th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.7017th/30
37.79%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.38%16th/30
29.6826th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9219th/30
54.0626th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3913th/30
54.91%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.40%21st/30
19.4118th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7513th/30
25.2818th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.999th/30
76.79%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.15%19th/30
10.957th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7019th/30
32.1614th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.244th/30
9.9328th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7826th/30
4.7410th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2419th/30
14.2220th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.737th/30
24.7127th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7921st/30
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