WSH75
FINAL
114OKC
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Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
4-5
75
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
7-2
114
Market line: Oklahoma City Thunder -12.0, total 222.5 · Model expected score: Washington Wizards 105.3 – Oklahoma City Thunder 117.3

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 39
COMBINED SCORE
189

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
18%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
25%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (222.5). The real combined score was 189.

O/U LINE 210
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony DavisPF
23.4
Trae YoungPG
20.0
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
19.0
AJ DybantsaSF
15.4
Alex SarrC
10.0
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
29.9
Ajay MitchellSG
19.7
Jalen WilliamsSF
13.7
Chet HolmgrenPF
12.0
Jared McCainSG
11.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
107.80
27th / 30
Points
OKC
112.20
16th / 30
WSH
41.60
26th / 30
Rebounds
OKC
47.30
7th / 30
WSH
24.60
26th / 30
Assists
OKC
23.10
29th / 30
WSH
97.92
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
97.79
24th / 30
WSH
51.41%
24th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
51.86%
22nd / 30
WSH
12.32%
9th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
10.66%
1st / 30
WSH
22.17%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
26.27%
17th / 30
WSH
.293
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.230
27th / 30
WSH
110.09
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
114.74
15th / 30
WSH
114.89
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
106.56
2nd / 30
WSH
-4.80
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+8.18
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.83%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.67%17th/30
9.7029th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.5625th/30
32.1729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.1327th/30
30.16%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.88%15th/30
30.134th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.093rd/30
54.745th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
60.231st/30
55.04%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.61%24th/30
20.7312th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.9022nd/30
25.4313th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.4826th/30
81.53%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.33%2nd/30
9.8028th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6617th/30
32.6816th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.711st/30
7.8620th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2816th/30
5.728th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.037th/30
13.795th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.271st/30
19.913rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.231st/30
Opponent
44.34%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.75%1st/30
13.0714th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2121st/30
41.2626th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.6729th/30
31.68%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.55%9th/30
29.7227th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.422nd/30
55.2529th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.688th/30
53.79%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.11%2nd/30
16.244th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.085th/30
19.102nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.886th/30
85.03%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.04%18th/30
14.7129th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.0921st/30
34.4227th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7218th/30
9.0921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.341st/30
3.061st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1118th/30
13.9923rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3218th/30
21.5511th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.179th/30
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