NY109
FINAL
97CLE
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New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
4-4
109
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
5-4
97
Market line: New York Knicks -5.5, total 223.5 · Model expected score: New York Knicks 114.5 – Cleveland Cavaliers 109.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Knicks won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
206

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (223.5). The real combined score was 206.

O/U LINE 210
77% over23% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
25.6
Karl-Anthony TownsC
19.9
OG AnunobyPF
16.6
Josh HartSF
8.6
Mikal BridgesSF
6.3
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
22.6
Evan MobleyPF
19.1
James HardenPG
16.7
Jarrett AllenC
13.3
Peyton WatsonSF
11.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
NY
109.89
21st / 30
Points
CLE
117.00
10th / 30
NY
48.33
4th / 30
Rebounds
CLE
47.60
6th / 30
NY
26.11
17th / 30
Assists
CLE
27.00
T-8th / 30
NY
94.98
29th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
100.50
8th / 30
NY
51.06%
26th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
54.51%
9th / 30
NY
11.96%
6th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.71%
4th / 30
NY
32.27%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
25.56%
22nd / 30
NY
.266
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.283
16th / 30
NY
115.70
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
116.42
11th / 30
NY
109.73
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
113.53
13th / 30
NY
+5.97
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+2.89
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.91%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.94%14th/30
15.333rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.324th/30
42.585th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.097th/30
35.99%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.41%9th/30
25.0323rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.7719th/30
51.4714th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.3623rd/30
48.64%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.41%13th/30
19.6514th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9117th/30
25.0318th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2714th/30
78.50%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.80%23rd/30
15.332nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4418th/30
35.564th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.922nd/30
7.7221st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.1627th/30
4.5622nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.479th/30
14.279th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.334th/30
22.5817th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.398th/30
Opponent
43.32%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.92%8th/30
14.2723rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2316th/30
42.8228th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.2018th/30
33.33%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.76%14th/30
24.806th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7617th/30
47.386th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.1327th/30
52.35%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.29%7th/30
17.317th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.319th/30
24.3310th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.287th/30
71.15%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.63%21st/30
10.655th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7420th/30
32.1715th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3320th/30
6.903rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.064th/30
6.7930th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.884th/30
12.8728th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.3430th/30
22.7014th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.607th/30
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