BKN121
FINAL
124ATL
← back to predictions

Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
2-6
121
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
6-4
124
Market line: Atlanta Hawks -6.5, total 226.5 · Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 110.0 – Atlanta Hawks 116.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
245

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
31%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (226.5). The real combined score was 245.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 240
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
21.4
Julius RandlePF
21.0
Nolan TraoréPG
12.0
Egor DëminPG
7.8
Day'Ron SharpeC
7.1
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
22.3
Jalen JohnsonPF
18.3
CJ McCollumPG
13.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.2
Luguentz DortPF
10.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
108.22
26th / 30
Points
ATL
118.64
4th / 30
BKN
44.00
T-15th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
44.09
14th / 30
BKN
23.44
28th / 30
Assists
ATL
31.55
1st / 30
BKN
99.78
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
102.08
4th / 30
BKN
51.85%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
53.14%
16th / 30
BKN
15.10%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
12.00%
7th / 30
BKN
25.85%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
29.38%
11th / 30
BKN
.334
5th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.208
30th / 30
BKN
108.46
27th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
116.22
12th / 30
BKN
114.36
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
113.10
12th / 30
BKN
-5.90
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+3.12
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.44%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.32%21st/30
14.1412th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.877th/30
40.3111th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.664th/30
35.08%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.86%16th/30
22.3830th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2311th/30
43.7629th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4611th/30
51.15%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.82%14th/30
21.2711th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.1430th/30
28.066th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.7730th/30
75.79%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.58%18th/30
11.0220th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.897th/30
33.079th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.3027th/30
8.8013th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.716th/30
4.3425th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.7428th/30
17.1527th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.168th/30
26.3929th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.739th/30
Opponent
45.24%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.26%26th/30
14.3624th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.951st/30
41.8727th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.572nd/30
34.31%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.63%10th/30
24.283rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8328th/30
43.541st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9415th/30
55.75%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.57%28th/30
22.7225th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5720th/30
29.0624th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8319th/30
78.16%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.66%24th/30
10.473rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2210th/30
31.6210th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4021st/30
8.1310th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9920th/30
4.9012th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5223rd/30
15.7012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.285th/30
24.0524th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.061st/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service