DEN114
FINAL
102IND
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Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
4-3
114
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
3-6
102
Market line: Denver Nuggets -7.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 118.6 – Indiana Pacers 111.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
72%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Nikola JokićC
23.4
Christian BraunSG
14.6
Aaron GordonPF
12.3
Cameron JohnsonPF
9.0
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Pascal SiakamPF
21.3
Andrew NembhardSG
19.0
Aaron NesmithSF
12.7
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
9.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
115.25
13th / 30
Points
IND
110.30
20th / 30
DEN
42.75
21st / 30
Rebounds
IND
42.10
24th / 30
DEN
27.75
6th / 30
Assists
IND
27.00
T-8th / 30
DEN
97.55
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
99.60
14th / 30
DEN
55.40%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.40%
15th / 30
DEN
12.40%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
12.92%
12th / 30
DEN
25.60%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
20.97%
29th / 30
DEN
.315
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.272
21st / 30
DEN
118.15
8th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
110.74
20th / 30
DEN
115.97
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
114.65
18th / 30
DEN
+2.18
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-3.92
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.52%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.25%12th/30
11.9223rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4520th/30
33.0628th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.1514th/30
36.05%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.63%25th/30
30.115th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8115th/30
53.569th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8919th/30
56.22%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.88%4th/30
22.177th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.7724th/30
27.299th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6921st/30
81.22%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.00%21st/30
10.8921st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.5430th/30
32.9313th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7315th/30
10.124th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.2326th/30
3.5929th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8217th/30
13.977th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4611th/30
19.352nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.886th/30
Opponent
46.55%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.17%13th/30
14.2222nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.9619th/30
41.0125th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.3619th/30
34.69%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.46%21st/30
28.9623rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9112th/30
51.7720th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1016th/30
55.94%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.65%11th/30
15.382nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9817th/30
18.961st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.898th/30
81.08%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.41%23rd/30
13.3324th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2514th/30
31.6512th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.9429th/30
8.3315th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5316th/30
4.486th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.629th/30
15.6313th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9624th/30
23.9623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8915th/30
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