MIA100
FINAL
120GS
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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
3-5
100
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
5-3
120
Market line: Golden State Warriors -3.5, total 235.5 · Model expected score: Miami Heat 116.0 – Golden State Warriors 119.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (235.5). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
62% over38% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.3
Bam AdebayoC
18.6
Davion MitchellPG
15.4
Klay ThompsonSF
14.1
Andrew WigginsSF
9.4
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
30.0
Yaxel LendeborgSF
21.5
Brandin PodziemskiSG
17.0
De'Anthony MeltonSG
10.6
Georges NiangPF
7.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
116.00
11th / 30
Points
GS
117.78
9th / 30
MIA
42.78
20th / 30
Rebounds
GS
43.89
14th / 30
MIA
29.22
2nd / 30
Assists
GS
27.78
5th / 30
MIA
103.36
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
98.32
20th / 30
MIA
53.70%
13th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
55.52%
7th / 30
MIA
13.04%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.09%
24th / 30
MIA
23.28%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
31.54%
7th / 30
MIA
.289
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.307
10th / 30
MIA
112.23
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
119.79
5th / 30
MIA
118.57
26th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
114.93
20th / 30
MIA
-6.34
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+4.86
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.49%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.21%15th/30
12.5819th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.391st/30
38.0514th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.155th/30
33.05%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.87%2nd/30
27.9513th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.3028th/30
49.1319th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.8825th/30
56.89%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.96%20th/30
18.6019th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.047th/30
25.1517th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.0110th/30
73.93%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.59%5th/30
10.2126th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.907th/30
31.1721st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.7424th/30
8.0617th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2710th/30
4.9415th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5221st/30
14.739th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.3924th/30
20.213rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6015th/30
Opponent
49.08%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.47%22nd/30
16.4530th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8814th/30
40.7424th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2916th/30
40.37%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.55%12th/30
26.5510th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4821st/30
46.874th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.8412th/30
56.65%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.14%26th/30
16.122nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3218th/30
21.284th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5211th/30
75.76%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.80%20th/30
10.537th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5311th/30
33.6524th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.174th/30
8.1712th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.9426th/30
5.3721st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2017th/30
15.5914th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.185th/30
23.2216th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.9621st/30
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