ORL104
FINAL
117PHX
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Orlando Magic vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
2-5
104
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
1-5
117
Market line: Phoenix Suns -1.5, total 222.5 · Model expected score: Orlando Magic 110.6 – Phoenix Suns 112.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Suns won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
221

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (222.5). The real combined score was 221.

O/U LINE 210
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 230
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Franz WagnerSF
20.3
Desmond BaneSG
17.9
Anthony BlackPG
16.5
Wendell Carter Jr.C
12.4
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
24.7
Miles BridgesPF
17.3
Dillon BrooksSF
16.5
Jalen GreenSG
12.8
Khaman MaluachC
7.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ORL
105.50
29th / 30
Points
PHX
113.86
15th / 30
ORL
40.00
28th / 30
Rebounds
PHX
38.57
30th / 30
ORL
26.13
17th / 30
Assists
PHX
27.71
7th / 30
ORL
97.35
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
98.51
19th / 30
ORL
53.68%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
54.60%
10th / 30
ORL
16.16%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
12.48%
7th / 30
ORL
24.54%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
26.23%
19th / 30
ORL
.291
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.250
24th / 30
ORL
108.37
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
115.58
12th / 30
ORL
118.13
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
123.27
29th / 30
ORL
-9.76
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
-7.69
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.64%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.01%9th/30
13.4816th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6315th/30
39.2912th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.8515th/30
34.31%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.02%11th/30
24.7825th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.5711th/30
44.5626th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.9212th/30
55.62%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.03%11th/30
18.3622nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.5524th/30
24.4019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.4825th/30
75.26%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.06%13th/30
10.2725th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6017th/30
30.8223rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.5529th/30
7.3225th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.576th/30
3.7228th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2212th/30
18.2328th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.217th/30
23.1121st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.2227th/30
Opponent
47.59%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.34%26th/30
12.9715th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.6627th/30
35.316th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.7421st/30
36.73%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.42%29th/30
30.1827th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.549th/30
55.3428th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.575th/30
54.52%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.79%23rd/30
18.8815th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.2026th/30
24.7814th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.6028th/30
76.17%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.83%9th/30
12.0713th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.7928th/30
31.5911th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6315th/30
10.0227th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9810th/30
4.116th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.065th/30
13.8725th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.693rd/30
24.9127th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.433rd/30
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