MIA117
FINAL
116LAC
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Miami Heat vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
2-5
117
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-6
116
Market line: Miami Heat -5.5, total 233.5 · Model expected score: Miami Heat 119.5 – LA Clippers 114.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (233.5). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.4
Bam AdebayoC
16.3
Davion MitchellPG
16.0
Klay ThompsonSF
11.9
Andrew WigginsSF
10.3
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
20.1
Rui HachimuraPF
13.4
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.5
Kobe SandersSG
11.0
Isaiah JacksonC
9.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
118.00
7th / 30
Points
LAC
109.13
25th / 30
MIA
43.25
19th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
41.50
25th / 30
MIA
29.50
2nd / 30
Assists
LAC
25.63
21st / 30
MIA
103.54
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
100.30
12th / 30
MIA
54.34%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
53.47%
15th / 30
MIA
12.61%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
16.96%
30th / 30
MIA
23.76%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
24.78%
23rd / 30
MIA
.291
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.275
21st / 30
MIA
113.96
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
108.80
25th / 30
MIA
118.67
26th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
115.28
21st / 30
MIA
-4.71
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-6.48
23rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.17%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.35%18th/30
12.5619th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.7114th/30
37.4218th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.8921st/30
33.55%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.19%5th/30
28.7310th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.5526th/30
50.1017th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.4822nd/30
57.35%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.64%27th/30
18.8319th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5722nd/30
25.4716th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.1823rd/30
73.93%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.11%9th/30
10.3823rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.3424th/30
31.3921st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.0322nd/30
8.0917th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.095th/30
4.9515th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4922nd/30
14.258th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.3229th/30
20.041st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5614th/30
Opponent
48.71%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.79%29th/30
16.5430th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.098th/30
40.8124th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.275th/30
40.53%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.27%14th/30
26.6811th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.5329th/30
47.936th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.0925th/30
55.67%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.51%26th/30
15.691st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.958th/30
20.894th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1714th/30
75.14%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
71.29%1st/30
10.9910th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.3415th/30
33.3222nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.4110th/30
7.859th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.0928th/30
4.9514th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1117th/30
15.3315th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.4514th/30
23.4217th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.447th/30
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