LAL116
FINAL
103SAC
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
6-2
116
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
1-6
103
Market line: Los Angeles Lakers -12.0, total 233.5 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 122.7 – Sacramento Kings 110.8

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
219

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
81%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
5%
Won by 8-14
5%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (233.5). The real combined score was 219.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over23% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
38.3
Austin ReavesSG
23.6
Walker KesslerC
14.4
Ziaire WilliamsSF
10.8
Matisse ThybulleSF
8.6
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius Acuff Jr.PG
26.1
Zach LaVineSG
23.4
Domantas SabonisC
15.0
De'Andre HunterSF
12.9
Precious AchiuwaC
11.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
121.78
2nd / 30
Points
SAC
109.25
24th / 30
LAL
39.89
28th / 30
Rebounds
SAC
40.88
27th / 30
LAL
24.78
23rd / 30
Assists
SAC
24.38
27th / 30
LAL
99.24
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SAC
100.90
7th / 30
LAL
60.21%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SAC
51.76%
21st / 30
LAL
15.18%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SAC
14.02%
23rd / 30
LAL
26.76%
18th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SAC
24.86%
21st / 30
LAL
.371
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SAC
.261
23rd / 30
LAL
122.71
2nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
108.28
26th / 30
LAL
114.76
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
122.15
28th / 30
LAL
+7.95
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SAC
-13.88
29th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.23%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.21%21st/30
14.6710th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.5223rd/30
37.8415th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.4323rd/30
38.76%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.52%23rd/30
27.2116th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2513th/30
43.8929th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5310th/30
61.99%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.77%16th/30
24.292nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.2225th/30
30.343rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.9224th/30
80.07%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.14%23rd/30
10.1926th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.0320th/30
30.0026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.4827th/30
10.304th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6823rd/30
7.172nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.8530th/30
17.0227th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9823rd/30
23.9623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2921st/30
Opponent
45.20%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.86%30th/30
14.4424th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3818th/30
39.6319th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0414th/30
36.44%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.12%21st/30
25.085th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.2424th/30
47.815th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.448th/30
52.46%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.36%29th/30
21.2723rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.5427th/30
28.2124th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.6125th/30
75.40%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.50%25th/30
13.8825th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.285th/30
27.881st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3323rd/30
10.0827th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7926th/30
3.362nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0725th/30
18.032nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2521st/30
23.9621st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.074th/30
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