DAL111
FINAL
112SA
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Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
4-3
111
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
5-2
112
Market line: San Antonio Spurs -12.5, total 226.5 · Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 107.0 – San Antonio Spurs 119.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
223

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
18%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
26%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (226.5). The real combined score was 223.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
25.2
Kyrie IrvingPG
21.4
P.J. WashingtonPF
13.6
Naji MarshallSF
11.5
Daniel GaffordC
10.1
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.7
Dylan HarperSG
18.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
15.9
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Devin VassellSG
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
112.13
16th / 30
Points
SA
116.88
11th / 30
DAL
43.38
18th / 30
Rebounds
SA
48.50
4th / 30
DAL
26.25
16th / 30
Assists
SA
26.50
T-14th / 30
DAL
98.07
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
100.03
13th / 30
DAL
53.96%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
51.68%
23rd / 30
DAL
13.18%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
10.78%
1st / 30
DAL
28.02%
14th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
28.30%
13th / 30
DAL
.246
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.277
18th / 30
DAL
114.33
15th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
116.84
11th / 30
DAL
114.46
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
108.59
4th / 30
DAL
-0.13
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+8.25
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.96%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.50%16th/30
12.6218th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.5024th/30
37.4717th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.7422nd/30
33.67%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.17%24th/30
29.707th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.864th/30
52.649th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.362nd/30
56.42%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.81%15th/30
17.0826th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.6212th/30
22.1827th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.7415th/30
77.01%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.10%10th/30
12.1117th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1211th/30
32.1217th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.364th/30
8.7914th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3716th/30
5.869th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.371st/30
15.1715th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.623rd/30
22.9419th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.494th/30
Opponent
45.40%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.21%3rd/30
11.092nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.259th/30
37.0915th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.992nd/30
29.90%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.12%26th/30
31.1030th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.4916th/30
55.8329th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.9830th/30
55.71%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.61%1st/30
18.9915th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.876th/30
26.0019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.622nd/30
73.04%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.82%27th/30
15.1729th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.3716th/30
31.108th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2421st/30
8.7917th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.375th/30
5.2318th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2520th/30
14.2819th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.6226th/30
19.763rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.379th/30
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