POR132
FINAL
119PHX
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Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
5-1
132
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
1-4
119
Market line: Portland Trail Blazers -3.0, total 227.5 · Model expected score: Portland Trail Blazers 115.3 – Phoenix Suns 112.3

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Blazers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Blazers won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
251

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (227.5). The real combined score was 251.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 240
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over ✓90% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
23.8
Damian LillardPG
19.3
Ja MorantPG
15.8
Toumani CamaraPF
14.2
Donovan ClinganC
10.0
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
23.0
Miles BridgesPF
17.2
Dillon BrooksSF
16.8
Jalen GreenSG
11.0
Khaman MaluachC
7.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
POR
121.86
1st / 30
Points
PHX
113.33
15th / 30
POR
47.43
7th / 30
Rebounds
PHX
39.50
29th / 30
POR
27.14
9th / 30
Assists
PHX
27.33
8th / 30
POR
99.13
17th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
98.36
19th / 30
POR
56.44%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
53.48%
14th / 30
POR
13.01%
13th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
12.38%
7th / 30
POR
31.67%
4th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
27.82%
15th / 30
POR
.356
4th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.267
22nd / 30
POR
122.93
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
115.22
12th / 30
POR
111.69
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
126.41
30th / 30
POR
+11.24
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
-11.18
26th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.63%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.24%14th/30
15.563rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0517th/30
43.812nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.4614th/30
35.53%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.92%18th/30
26.5219th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.6412th/30
44.5327th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.6812th/30
59.55%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.41%10th/30
23.204th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.8120th/30
31.422nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.0620th/30
73.85%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.17%13th/30
13.699th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5416th/30
34.159th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.6229th/30
7.2125th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8113th/30
5.0414th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5911th/30
15.2817th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.237th/30
21.7610th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.2326th/30
Opponent
44.70%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.37%26th/30
11.384th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.1029th/30
36.178th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.9923rd/30
31.47%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.25%29th/30
27.5317th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.609th/30
50.8714th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.297th/30
54.11%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.09%19th/30
22.4824th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.9129th/30
26.8122nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.6930th/30
83.87%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.61%19th/30
10.669th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.7428th/30
29.543rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.5315th/30
8.3615th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.797th/30
4.328th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.245th/30
13.9824th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.447th/30
24.0722nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.335th/30
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