TOR109
FINAL
128DEN
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Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
4-3
109
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
3-3
128
Market line: Denver Nuggets -4.5, total 231.5 · Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 113.4 – Denver Nuggets 118.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (231.5). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Scottie BarnesPF
24.4
RJ BarrettSF
20.7
Kawhi LeonardSF
19.5
Immanuel QuickleyPG
18.0
Ja'Kobe WalterSG
11.9
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jamal MurrayPG
27.3
Nikola JokićC
22.0
Christian BraunSG
15.2
Aaron GordonPF
11.5
Cameron JohnsonPF
8.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
117.88
9th / 30
Points
DEN
115.43
13th / 30
TOR
42.25
22nd / 30
Rebounds
DEN
41.57
24th / 30
TOR
28.75
3rd / 30
Assists
DEN
27.57
6th / 30
TOR
100.53
11th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
97.62
22nd / 30
TOR
52.16%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
56.12%
4th / 30
TOR
11.55%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
13.74%
21st / 30
TOR
31.98%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
26.76%
19th / 30
TOR
.309
8th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.334
6th / 30
TOR
117.26
9th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
118.24
6th / 30
TOR
112.91
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
117.51
24th / 30
TOR
+4.35
11th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+0.73
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.09%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.97%3rd/30
11.1926th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.1520th/30
35.0724th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.6328th/30
31.91%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.22%8th/30
31.343rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.418th/30
57.203rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.2411th/30
54.78%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.30%8th/30
21.0111th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.985th/30
28.485th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.396th/30
73.80%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.93%8th/30
14.674th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1219th/30
27.3630th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.4620th/30
11.442nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.983rd/30
3.8526th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8028th/30
13.685th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.5120th/30
27.1130th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.193rd/30
Opponent
47.36%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.84%19th/30
12.3110th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0520th/30
33.323rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.8021st/30
36.94%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.29%15th/30
25.627th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.2725th/30
46.753rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6824th/30
54.79%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.56%22nd/30
24.7528th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.835th/30
31.2129th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.633rd/30
79.28%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.56%26th/30
9.952nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.3427th/30
31.219th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.445th/30
8.3314th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2221st/30
4.8512th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3910th/30
19.151st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.399th/30
25.2429th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.2925th/30
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