CLE116
FINAL
124OKC
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-3
116
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-2
124
Market line: Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5, total 226.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 111.5 – Oklahoma City Thunder 115.1

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
240

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (226.5). The real combined score was 240.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
21.9
Evan MobleyPF
19.1
James HardenPG
16.3
Jarrett AllenC
15.1
Meleek ThomasSG
14.0
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
28.4
Ajay MitchellSG
17.0
Jalen WilliamsSF
13.7
Chet HolmgrenPF
12.0
Jared McCainSG
10.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
119.25
5th / 30
Points
OKC
110.00
T-21st / 30
CLE
47.50
6th / 30
Rebounds
OKC
46.63
T-8th / 30
CLE
27.75
5th / 30
Assists
OKC
21.63
29th / 30
CLE
101.93
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
97.27
25th / 30
CLE
54.94%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
50.00%
27th / 30
CLE
11.67%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
10.84%
2nd / 30
CLE
25.21%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
27.53%
16th / 30
CLE
.276
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.241
27th / 30
CLE
116.99
10th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
113.09
19th / 30
CLE
114.90
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
111.80
10th / 30
CLE
+2.08
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+1.29
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.36%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.03%24th/30
15.334th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.1827th/30
41.208th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.5426th/30
37.20%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.33%21st/30
26.1220th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.075th/30
48.1923rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
60.141st/30
54.20%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.00%28th/30
18.7621st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4116th/30
24.6518th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.6225th/30
76.12%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
85.80%1st/30
11.1618th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5915th/30
35.442nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.345th/30
7.1126th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9719th/30
5.898th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.916th/30
13.244th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.592nd/30
21.468th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.052nd/30
Opponent
44.91%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.24%4th/30
13.3717th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.6827th/30
38.0118th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.5729th/30
35.16%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.99%20th/30
28.3320th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.163rd/30
54.8127th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.589th/30
51.68%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.74%3rd/30
18.159th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.454th/30
23.427th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.595th/30
77.49%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%11th/30
12.5117th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.8519th/30
33.1119th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1620th/30
6.873rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.552nd/30
3.803rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6523rd/30
12.5129th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2620th/30
20.366th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.9811th/30
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