UTAH113
FINAL
120NO
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Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-6
113
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
3-4
120
Market line: New Orleans Pelicans -5.0, total 232.5 · Model expected score: Utah Jazz 113.8 – New Orleans Pelicans 118.7

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pelicans 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pelicans won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
35%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (232.5). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
19.6
Lauri MarkkanenPF
16.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Darryn PetersonSG
13.4
Ace BaileySF
12.1
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
21.3
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.8
Trey Murphy IIISF
14.9
Jeremiah FearsPG
12.9
Karlo MatkovićPF
10.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
107.75
27th / 30
Points
NO
121.63
3rd / 30
UTAH
46.63
T-8th / 30
Rebounds
NO
44.88
11th / 30
UTAH
24.63
T-25th / 30
Assists
NO
25.38
22nd / 30
UTAH
101.71
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NO
105.81
1st / 30
UTAH
49.50%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NO
53.81%
12th / 30
UTAH
14.43%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NO
14.04%
24th / 30
UTAH
26.80%
17th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NO
24.86%
22nd / 30
UTAH
.305
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NO
.362
3rd / 30
UTAH
105.94
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
114.95
13th / 30
UTAH
117.00
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
112.70
13th / 30
UTAH
-11.06
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NO
+2.24
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.92%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.73%4th/30
11.4325th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.5130th/30
36.2620th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.8230th/30
31.53%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.72%26th/30
25.8122nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.251st/30
50.5116th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.824th/30
51.09%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.76%5th/30
20.0314th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.931st/30
26.4212th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.244th/30
75.81%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.42%2nd/30
12.7814th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.2825th/30
33.0613th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1316th/30
6.6428th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.701st/30
6.514th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4921st/30
16.5925th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8322nd/30
23.6022nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.749th/30
Opponent
45.45%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.70%23rd/30
12.4113th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.586th/30
34.174th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9813th/30
36.33%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.31%5th/30
26.9213th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.8321st/30
52.3622nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.734th/30
51.41%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.40%30th/30
25.9330th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.3220th/30
30.7328th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9918th/30
84.40%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.18%18th/30
9.953rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.516th/30
34.9028th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.077th/30
9.7125th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0312th/30
5.2821st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9615th/30
13.1527th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.428th/30
24.7026th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0415th/30
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