IND107
FINAL
103MEM
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Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
2-6
107
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
6-1
103
Market line: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5, total 228.5 · Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 111.0 – Memphis Grizzlies 117.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pacers won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
210

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (228.5). The real combined score was 210.

O/U LINE 210
85% over15% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Pascal SiakamPF
21.4
Andrew NembhardSG
18.5
Aaron NesmithSF
12.2
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
9.4
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromePG
28.2
Cameron BoozerPF
17.7
Jaylen WellsSG
12.7
Cedric CowardSG
12.5
Zach EdeyC
6.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
111.22
18th / 30
Points
MEM
120.50
4th / 30
IND
41.78
23rd / 30
Rebounds
MEM
49.50
1st / 30
IND
26.67
13th / 30
Assists
MEM
27.50
7th / 30
IND
99.89
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
100.56
10th / 30
IND
53.48%
13th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
55.97%
5th / 30
IND
13.27%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
13.30%
19th / 30
IND
21.98%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
29.60%
9th / 30
IND
.295
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.247
25th / 30
IND
111.35
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
119.83
5th / 30
IND
114.35
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
109.14
5th / 30
IND
-3.00
20th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
+10.69
4th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.45%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.33%8th/30
12.1221st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.662nd/30
36.9319th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.1513th/30
32.83%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.00%1st/30
27.9214th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.2215th/30
49.2819th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.4613th/30
56.66%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.90%20th/30
19.1317th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.4023rd/30
25.4717th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.3726th/30
75.11%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.22%3rd/30
9.9027th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.8013th/30
31.9218th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.421st/30
7.7921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.2229th/30
4.7818th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.7210th/30
14.9113th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.4118th/30
20.806th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.7428th/30
Opponent
45.09%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.74%8th/30
14.3522nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.687th/30
39.7120th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2916th/30
36.13%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.33%6th/30
26.038th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9715th/30
49.8311th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.0916th/30
52.23%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.80%12th/30
19.2416th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1418th/30
24.368th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.2320th/30
79.00%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.78%15th/30
12.5718th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8111th/30
35.1529th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.456th/30
9.0120th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9611th/30
4.8913th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.8429th/30
15.1316th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2918th/30
23.9220th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.3810th/30
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