CHI105
FINAL
135NY
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Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-6
105
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
3-4
135
Market line: New York Knicks -11.5, total 233.5 · Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 111.0 – New York Knicks 122.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Knicks won by 30
COMBINED SCORE
240

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
20%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (233.5). The real combined score was 240.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
21.6
Norman PowellSG
20.3
Matas BuzelisSF
13.0
Jalen SmithC
12.1
Josh GiddeyPG
9.1
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
24.6
Karl-Anthony TownsC
20.3
OG AnunobyPF
16.4
Josh HartSF
8.6
Mikal BridgesSF
6.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
111.63
17th / 30
Points
NY
110.00
T-21st / 30
CHI
43.88
T-14th / 30
Rebounds
NY
48.25
5th / 30
CHI
24.63
T-25th / 30
Assists
NY
26.00
T-18th / 30
CHI
104.04
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NY
95.78
29th / 30
CHI
47.60%
30th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NY
51.20%
26th / 30
CHI
13.23%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NY
12.62%
11th / 30
CHI
28.75%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NY
31.94%
3rd / 30
CHI
.368
2nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NY
.282
17th / 30
CHI
107.29
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
114.85
14th / 30
CHI
124.59
29th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
109.76
6th / 30
CHI
-17.30
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NY
+5.09
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
41.21%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.94%26th/30
11.1728th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.275th/30
41.099th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.766th/30
27.19%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.56%10th/30
24.8723rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.4027th/30
46.3825th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.6415th/30
53.63%T-17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.20%30th/30
24.033rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.2313th/30
32.201st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.1013th/30
74.63%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.50%15th/30
13.5810th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.012nd/30
28.6028th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.373rd/30
8.0518th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.7022nd/30
4.9316th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5720th/30
15.5019th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0114th/30
24.1525th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8418th/30
Opponent
48.79%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.40%6th/30
14.4223rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8319th/30
36.6511th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.2425th/30
39.34%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.54%11th/30
29.0823rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.196th/30
52.5023rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.6810th/30
55.38%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.74%7th/30
23.1925th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.887th/30
30.4027th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6712th/30
76.28%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.49%2nd/30
13.4623rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.577th/30
33.6424th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.9712th/30
8.2913th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.314th/30
5.0516th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.9230th/30
14.3017th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.9228th/30
23.9119th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9714th/30
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