CHA104
FINAL
114BKN
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Charlotte Hornets vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
3-5
104
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
1-6
114
Market line: Charlotte Hornets -3.5, total 212.5 · Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 108.0 – Brooklyn Nets 104.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nets won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (212.5). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210 MARKET LINE
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 220
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
2% over98% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
0% over100% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
23.5
Naz ReidC
15.5
Dennis SchröderPG
10.9
Moussa DiabatéC
9.1
Coby WhitePG
7.0
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Julius RandlePF
20.9
Michael Porter Jr.SF
20.7
Nolan TraoréPG
11.4
Egor DëminPG
7.8
Day'Ron SharpeC
7.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
98.11
30th / 30
Points
BKN
106.63
28th / 30
CHA
46.11
10th / 30
Rebounds
BKN
42.88
20th / 30
CHA
21.11
30th / 30
Assists
BKN
22.75
28th / 30
CHA
94.82
30th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BKN
98.89
18th / 30
CHA
48.00%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BKN
51.28%
24th / 30
CHA
16.35%
29th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BKN
14.73%
26th / 30
CHA
31.54%
7th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BKN
24.49%
24th / 30
CHA
.221
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BKN
.335
5th / 30
CHA
103.47
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
107.82
27th / 30
CHA
115.19
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
114.14
15th / 30
CHA
-11.72
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BKN
-6.32
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
40.44%30th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.79%28th/30
13.7113th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2811th/30
46.291st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.4510th/30
29.62%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.31%12th/30
22.9729th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
21.7430th/30
44.4128th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.7430th/30
51.72%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.71%29th/30
16.4027th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.4910th/30
20.0429th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.197th/30
81.87%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.23%18th/30
15.121st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.6221st/30
33.5110th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7414th/30
7.5024th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7215th/30
5.2712th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8017th/30
19.4530th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.6926th/30
22.6215th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.9229th/30
Opponent
47.37%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.32%14th/30
14.1821st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7926th/30
36.449th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.7127th/30
38.91%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.45%18th/30
26.9514th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.132nd/30
50.3913th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.971st/30
53.49%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.12%20th/30
18.7513th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.5126th/30
24.3710th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.8326th/30
76.92%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.81%20th/30
9.371st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.994th/30
32.8117th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7416th/30
10.5530th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.848th/30
4.349th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.307th/30
14.1823rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.3110th/30
24.1423rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.0328th/30
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