ATL120
FINAL
105WSH
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Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
4-4
120
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
4-3
105
Market line: Atlanta Hawks -3.0, total 231.5 · Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 117.2 – Washington Wizards 114.3

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
59%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (231.5). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
21.1
Jalen JohnsonPF
18.3
CJ McCollumPG
14.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
12.0
Dyson DanielsSF
9.8
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony DavisPF
23.0
Trae YoungPG
19.9
AJ DybantsaSF
19.0
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
16.1
Alex SarrC
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
115.78
12th / 30
Points
WSH
108.88
26th / 30
ATL
44.67
12th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
41.00
26th / 30
ATL
31.00
1st / 30
Assists
WSH
24.75
24th / 30
ATL
101.43
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
97.39
24th / 30
ATL
52.54%
19th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
52.87%
18th / 30
ATL
12.20%
6th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
12.52%
8th / 30
ATL
29.06%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
20.30%
30th / 30
ATL
.205
30th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.317
7th / 30
ATL
114.15
16th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
111.79
21st / 30
ATL
111.41
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
111.92
12th / 30
ATL
+2.74
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-0.13
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.51%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.58%7th/30
15.236th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.9829th/30
43.384th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.5529th/30
35.10%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.41%29th/30
26.9517th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.442nd/30
51.3814th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.426th/30
52.45%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.78%3rd/30
14.5729th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.958th/30
19.3930th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.9511th/30
75.14%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.43%6th/30
13.917th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.6030th/30
30.1224th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5011th/30
9.536th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8320th/30
3.4029th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.907th/30
14.359th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.866th/30
22.7917th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.927th/30
Opponent
47.98%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.65%2nd/30
9.971st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0916th/30
32.971st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.5128th/30
30.23%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.09%2nd/30
30.4527th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2419th/30
51.2718th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.3926th/30
59.40%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.88%13th/30
20.5921st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.173rd/30
25.9617th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.121st/30
79.32%23rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.56%30th/30
10.638th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.4030th/30
33.9626th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7525th/30
8.8719th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8618th/30
6.2426th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.821st/30
17.094th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2522nd/30
19.062nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.3616th/30
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