PHI112
FINAL
106DET
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
7-1
112
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
6-1
106
Market line: Detroit Pistons -2.5, total 219.5 · Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 108.5 – Detroit Pistons 110.9

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ 76ers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (219.5). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
29.1
Jaylen BrownSF
20.6
Joel EmbiidC
18.5
LeBron JamesPF
16.2
VJ EdgecombeSG
12.7
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
23.7
Duncan RobinsonSF
17.9
Paul ReedC
13.4
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
111.00
20th / 30
Points
DET
111.13
19th / 30
PHI
42.33
21st / 30
Rebounds
DET
44.00
13th / 30
PHI
26.11
17th / 30
Assists
DET
26.88
10th / 30
PHI
99.23
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
97.44
23rd / 30
PHI
51.70%
22nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.93%
8th / 30
PHI
11.02%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
13.21%
16th / 30
PHI
21.09%
29th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
24.12%
25th / 30
PHI
.292
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.275
20th / 30
PHI
111.86
20th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
114.05
17th / 30
PHI
106.04
2nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
104.43
1st / 30
PHI
+5.82
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+9.62
5th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.21%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.76%11th/30
11.5322nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2412th/30
33.4827th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.7216th/30
34.45%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.76%7th/30
28.6711th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.5618th/30
55.435th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.5218th/30
51.72%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.63%T-17th/30
19.9315th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2224th/30
25.9814th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.9921st/30
76.72%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.94%20th/30
9.5229th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.5222nd/30
33.1412th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.646th/30
8.9611th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.497th/30
4.7019th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.673rd/30
12.431st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.8812th/30
22.0611th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9620th/30
Opponent
43.52%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.69%1st/30
11.313rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3211th/30
35.617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9717th/30
31.76%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.43%10th/30
26.6510th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.374th/30
51.6221st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0312th/30
51.63%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.72%2nd/30
18.8114th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7312th/30
25.5316th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6311th/30
73.68%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.04%9th/30
12.2113th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.2122nd/30
35.6130th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1018th/30
6.271st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6016th/30
6.0524th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5222nd/30
16.0112th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.583rd/30
21.058th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5813th/30
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