MIA117
FINAL
138LAL
← back to predictions

Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
2-4
117
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
5-2
138
Market line: Los Angeles Lakers -1.0, total 238.5 · Model expected score: Miami Heat 118.8 – Los Angeles Lakers 119.7

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
255

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
47%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (238.5). The real combined score was 255.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.2
Bam AdebayoC
16.3
Davion MitchellPG
16.2
Andrew WigginsSF
10.8
Klay ThompsonSF
10.7
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
37.7
Austin ReavesSG
23.1
Walker KesslerC
14.3
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.3
Matisse ThybulleSG
9.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
118.14
9th / 30
Points
LAL
122.50
2nd / 30
MIA
42.29
22nd / 30
Rebounds
LAL
40.13
28th / 30
MIA
28.71
T-4th / 30
Assists
LAL
25.38
22nd / 30
MIA
102.78
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
99.71
14th / 30
MIA
55.36%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
61.12%
1st / 30
MIA
13.05%
15th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
15.75%
28th / 30
MIA
23.95%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
27.09%
16th / 30
MIA
.296
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.357
2nd / 30
MIA
114.95
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
122.85
2nd / 30
MIA
120.51
26th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
115.58
19th / 30
MIA
-5.56
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+7.27
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.84%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.99%1st/30
13.0718th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.926th/30
37.5317th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.6116th/30
34.81%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.67%2nd/30
28.499th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5814th/30
49.3419th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.1329th/30
57.75%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
62.50%1st/30
18.7620th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.943rd/30
25.7114th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.213rd/30
72.97%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.54%11th/30
10.2924th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.1525th/30
30.8620th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.0923rd/30
7.9219th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.155th/30
4.8616th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.394th/30
14.7310th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.6828th/30
20.576th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.9424th/30
Opponent
48.84%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.02%17th/30
16.8230th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.6725th/30
41.0025th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.6119th/30
41.02%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.03%24th/30
26.9714th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.207th/30
48.659th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.014th/30
55.43%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.60%15th/30
16.121st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1922nd/30
21.274th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.0824th/30
75.82%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.45%9th/30
11.8111th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.6624th/30
32.6618th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.331st/30
8.0610th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.5329th/30
4.7312th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.262nd/30
15.1515th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.053rd/30
23.3519th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8220th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service