TOR125
FINAL
118LAC
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Toronto Raptors vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
3-3
125
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-5
118
Market line: Toronto Raptors -4.0, total 222.0 · Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 113.0 – LA Clippers 109.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
243

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (222.0). The real combined score was 243.

O/U LINE 210
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 230
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 240
16% over ✓84% under
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Scottie BarnesPF
24.8
RJ BarrettSF
19.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
19.5
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.5
Ja'Kobe WalterSG
12.2
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
20.8
Rui HachimuraPF
13.4
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.5
Kris DunnPG
8.5
Isaiah JacksonC
8.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
119.14
7th / 30
Points
LAC
108.14
24th / 30
TOR
44.14
14th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
40.71
26th / 30
TOR
28.71
T-4th / 30
Assists
LAC
25.00
23rd / 30
TOR
101.27
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
99.08
17th / 30
TOR
51.75%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
52.98%
19th / 30
TOR
11.27%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
17.19%
30th / 30
TOR
32.52%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
26.46%
18th / 30
TOR
.315
8th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.283
18th / 30
TOR
117.65
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
109.15
23rd / 30
TOR
110.03
7th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
116.51
21st / 30
TOR
+7.62
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-7.35
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.81%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.97%22nd/30
11.0027th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5515th/30
34.9923rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.3321st/30
31.45%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.37%5th/30
31.462nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.5125th/30
57.702nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.3120th/30
54.52%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.71%27th/30
21.7210th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4715th/30
29.204th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.9421st/30
74.40%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.33%7th/30
15.092nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1022nd/30
28.5029th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.9925th/30
11.572nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.674th/30
4.2324th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1825th/30
13.404th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.7530th/30
27.5130th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.3515th/30
Opponent
45.41%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.75%29th/30
12.7013th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.5412th/30
34.564th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.883rd/30
36.73%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.02%23rd/30
23.562nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.5729th/30
45.283rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.7724th/30
52.02%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.92%27th/30
24.8330th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.7410th/30
31.6030th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.3814th/30
78.57%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
69.89%1st/30
10.308th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5416th/30
31.329th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.867th/30
7.908th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.2428th/30
5.3621st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0517th/30
19.611st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.1510th/30
26.1029th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.0510th/30
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