UTAH97
FINAL
119SA
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Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-5
97
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
4-2
119
Market line: San Antonio Spurs -15.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: Utah Jazz 107.0 – San Antonio Spurs 122.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 88%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
216

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
12%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
34%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 216.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
21.7
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Lauri MarkkanenPF
15.4
Ace BaileySF
13.3
Darryn PetersonSG
13.3
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
28.0
Dylan HarperSG
18.5
De'Aaron FoxPG
16.5
Stephon CastlePG
14.5
Devin VassellSG
12.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
107.00
26th / 30
Points
SA
117.57
10th / 30
UTAH
46.29
10th / 30
Rebounds
SA
46.71
8th / 30
UTAH
24.71
T-24th / 30
Assists
SA
27.43
T-7th / 30
UTAH
100.73
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
100.45
12th / 30
UTAH
49.51%
27th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
53.15%
17th / 30
UTAH
14.23%
25th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.17%
2nd / 30
UTAH
26.33%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
26.18%
21st / 30
UTAH
.302
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.257
23rd / 30
UTAH
106.22
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
117.05
10th / 30
UTAH
118.00
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
107.81
4th / 30
UTAH
-11.77
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+9.24
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.81%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.46%15th/30
11.6324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3720th/30
35.1722nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.5620th/30
33.06%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.80%15th/30
25.5323rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.586th/30
51.6211th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.893rd/30
49.45%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.75%17th/30
20.2812th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7719th/30
26.2413th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.7522nd/30
77.30%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.04%10th/30
12.6214th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8016th/30
33.3312th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.705th/30
6.5228th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6816th/30
6.523rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.971st/30
16.3125th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.942nd/30
22.5516th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.485th/30
Opponent
45.85%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.01%7th/30
13.6118th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.958th/30
36.5913th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.281st/30
37.21%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.00%22nd/30
26.3810th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7317th/30
50.6315th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.8930th/30
52.10%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.91%1st/30
24.3929th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.503rd/30
29.3627th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.771st/30
83.09%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.45%28th/30
9.641st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5210th/30
35.3129th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2823rd/30
9.9326th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.686th/30
5.2520th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4022nd/30
12.7629th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3622nd/30
24.8227th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.486th/30
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