BOS93
FINAL
109HOU
← back to predictions

Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
5-1
93
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
6-1
109
Market line: Houston Rockets -5.5, total 219.5 · Model expected score: Boston Celtics 106.9 – Houston Rockets 112.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
202

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
34%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
14%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (219.5). The real combined score was 202.

O/U LINE 210
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
28.3
Paul GeorgePF
20.7
Derrick WhiteSG
11.8
Mitchell RobinsonC
6.6
Jordan WalshPF
4.3
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Alperen ŞengünC
22.8
Kevin DurantPF
22.0
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
19.0
Amen ThompsonSF
16.3
Fred VanVleetPG
13.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BOS
115.00
13th / 30
Points
HOU
119.25
6th / 30
BOS
42.43
T-20th / 30
Rebounds
HOU
44.00
15th / 30
BOS
26.86
11th / 30
Assists
HOU
28.75
3rd / 30
BOS
97.37
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
HOU
96.57
28th / 30
BOS
53.77%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
HOU
57.37%
2nd / 30
BOS
12.93%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
HOU
12.81%
9th / 30
BOS
28.85%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
HOU
31.53%
4th / 30
BOS
.311
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
HOU
.301
13th / 30
BOS
118.11
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
123.48
1st / 30
BOS
112.09
12th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
110.15
8th / 30
BOS
+6.02
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
HOU
+13.33
1st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.74%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.78%2nd/30
14.3810th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4617th/30
41.677th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.4326th/30
34.51%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.10%3rd/30
26.5620th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.685th/30
47.8323rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.236th/30
55.52%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.56%8th/30
21.868th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.749th/30
27.888th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.6611th/30
78.42%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.55%5th/30
12.9111th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.8112th/30
30.6621st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7513th/30
8.9513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.847th/30
3.8128th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.829th/30
15.1115th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7611th/30
24.6527th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.453rd/30
Opponent
44.24%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.67%10th/30
15.1127th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.049th/30
43.7230th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.2522nd/30
34.56%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.90%2nd/30
23.774th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.6019th/30
44.162nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.7416th/30
53.82%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.38%24th/30
19.2215th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.834th/30
26.1218th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.397th/30
73.60%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.14%8th/30
13.7925th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5617th/30
31.8410th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.832nd/30
8.0711th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1922nd/30
4.7011th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.373rd/30
17.175th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9213th/30
26.4130th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1716th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service