MIL100
FINAL
112MIN
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
1-5
100
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
4-3
112
Market line: Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5, total 233.5 · Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 111.5 – Minnesota Timberwolves 122.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (233.5). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over23% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
22.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
16.2
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.3
Ryan RollinsPG
11.2
Myles TurnerC
7.2
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
33.3
Jaden McDanielsPF
17.3
Ayo DosunmuSG
15.3
LaMelo BallPG
14.4
Jonathan KumingaPF
12.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
111.14
20th / 30
Points
MIN
119.00
8th / 30
MIL
49.57
3rd / 30
Rebounds
MIN
49.75
1st / 30
MIL
25.71
T-20th / 30
Assists
MIN
26.63
14th / 30
MIL
101.92
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIN
101.39
8th / 30
MIL
51.06%
24th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIN
55.07%
9th / 30
MIL
13.50%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIN
12.28%
7th / 30
MIL
30.26%
7th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIN
31.13%
5th / 30
MIL
.221
27th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIN
.263
20th / 30
MIL
109.05
24th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
117.37
9th / 30
MIL
121.81
27th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
106.15
3rd / 30
MIL
-12.76
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIN
+11.22
4th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.33%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.00%10th/30
14.3011th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.925th/30
42.893rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.8211th/30
33.33%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.46%7th/30
25.7922nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4811th/30
49.6217th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.528th/30
51.98%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.23%15th/30
14.5829th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.6627th/30
20.4628th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.2919th/30
71.23%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
64.47%30th/30
14.724th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.556th/30
33.929th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.527th/30
5.4730th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7515th/30
4.4920th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8117th/30
15.8420th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.438th/30
22.1513th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7011th/30
Opponent
46.96%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.45%5th/30
14.4423rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.343rd/30
41.2126th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.4911th/30
35.03%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.08%4th/30
28.8821st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.1216th/30
51.0218th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.0322nd/30
56.59%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.13%10th/30
20.7520th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.8812th/30
27.0522nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.558th/30
76.68%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.92%13th/30
13.0420th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9613th/30
33.9226th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1811th/30
9.3923rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.897th/30
6.5928th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.5327th/30
11.9130th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6614th/30
18.641st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4413th/30
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