NO135
FINAL
134MEM
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
2-4
135
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
6-0
134
Market line: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5, total 235.5 · Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 114.5 – Memphis Grizzlies 121.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pelicans won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
269

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (235.5). The real combined score was 269.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 250
21% over ✓79% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over ✓91% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
20.7
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.8
Trey Murphy IIISF
14.3
Jeremiah FearsPG
13.0
Yves MissiC
9.5
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
25.8
Cameron BoozerPF
17.7
Cedric CowardSG
13.0
Jaylen WellsSG
12.2
Zach EdeyC
7.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
NO
121.86
3rd / 30
Points
MEM
123.00
1st / 30
NO
44.43
13th / 30
Rebounds
MEM
49.71
2nd / 30
NO
25.71
T-20th / 30
Assists
MEM
27.43
T-7th / 30
NO
105.41
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
100.53
11th / 30
NO
55.01%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
56.58%
3rd / 30
NO
14.10%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
12.87%
13th / 30
NO
24.42%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
30.00%
9th / 30
NO
.344
3rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.259
22nd / 30
NO
115.61
12th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
122.35
3rd / 30
NO
113.98
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
109.56
5th / 30
NO
+1.63
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
+12.79
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.60%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.65%6th/30
9.0830th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.202nd/30
28.0530th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.5114th/30
32.37%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.07%1st/30
32.531st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.0017th/30
55.844th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.1510th/30
58.25%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.77%23rd/30
23.312nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.7513th/30
28.875th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4523rd/30
80.75%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.24%2nd/30
10.0327th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7913th/30
32.1216th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.661st/30
12.201st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.9729th/30
4.3421st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.838th/30
15.8621st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.9213th/30
21.418th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.7228th/30
Opponent
48.31%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.50%6th/30
11.796th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.655th/30
36.057th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.3716th/30
32.71%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.18%5th/30
29.0022nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8612th/30
48.387th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1619th/30
59.94%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.50%11th/30
20.6019th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8921st/30
25.7516th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.5723rd/30
80.00%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.77%11th/30
10.035th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.3614th/30
31.048th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.844th/30
8.1312th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.675th/30
4.7413th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.8229th/30
16.1311th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2124th/30
21.9611th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.1712th/30
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