CHI107
FINAL
126PHI
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Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-5
107
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
6-1
126
Market line: Philadelphia 76ers -11.5, total 238.5 · Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 113.5 – Philadelphia 76ers 125.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
20%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
19%
Won by 21+
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (238.5). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
21.2
Norman PowellSG
20.7
Matas BuzelisSF
14.5
Jalen SmithC
12.0
Josh GiddeyPG
8.5
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
29.6
Jaylen BrownSF
19.8
Joel EmbiidC
19.2
LeBron JamesSF
16.4
VJ EdgecombeSG
11.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
112.57
15th / 30
Points
PHI
110.88
21st / 30
CHI
45.29
11th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
41.63
T-23rd / 30
CHI
24.57
T-26th / 30
Assists
PHI
26.50
15th / 30
CHI
104.99
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
99.18
16th / 30
CHI
48.18%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
51.84%
22nd / 30
CHI
13.79%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
11.04%
1st / 30
CHI
28.99%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
21.23%
29th / 30
CHI
.380
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.288
16th / 30
CHI
107.22
27th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
111.79
20th / 30
CHI
122.74
29th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
105.99
2nd / 30
CHI
-15.51
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
+5.80
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
41.61%29th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.20%21st/30
11.2926th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.8523rd/30
40.559th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.6625th/30
27.85%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.18%19th/30
24.4926th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4810th/30
45.4525th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.575th/30
53.89%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.19%21st/30
24.361st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2816th/30
32.661st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.7115th/30
74.58%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.00%21st/30
13.337th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.5828th/30
29.8026th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3915th/30
8.3017th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.3310th/30
5.0314th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0413th/30
16.0622nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.481st/30
24.2225th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5617th/30
Opponent
48.55%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.25%3rd/30
14.0219th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.222nd/30
36.068th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.796th/30
38.87%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.34%6th/30
29.2624th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.7211th/30
53.0725th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.9321st/30
55.13%19th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.46%5th/30
22.1826th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9114th/30
29.3928th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8417th/30
75.46%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.17%4th/30
12.9318th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.2322nd/30
32.6617th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.5430th/30
8.4413th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.431st/30
4.9015th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0526th/30
14.4221st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.517th/30
24.2222nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.677th/30
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