WSH103
FINAL
94ORL
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Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
3-3
103
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
2-4
94
Market line: Orlando Magic -1.5, total 225.5 · Model expected score: Washington Wizards 112.0 – Orlando Magic 113.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Wizards won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
197

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (225.5). The real combined score was 197.

O/U LINE 210
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
62% over38% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony DavisPF
22.3
Trae YoungPG
20.7
AJ DybantsaSF
18.0
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
15.2
Alex SarrC
9.3
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Franz WagnerSF
19.7
Desmond BaneSG
17.5
Anthony BlackPG
16.5
Wendell Carter Jr.C
13.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
109.43
23rd / 30
Points
ORL
105.71
28th / 30
WSH
41.00
25th / 30
Rebounds
ORL
38.86
30th / 30
WSH
24.71
T-24th / 30
Assists
ORL
25.86
T-17th / 30
WSH
97.15
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
97.08
26th / 30
WSH
53.14%
18th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
53.32%
16th / 30
WSH
12.75%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
15.35%
27th / 30
WSH
20.49%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
22.89%
27th / 30
WSH
.329
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.290
15th / 30
WSH
112.64
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
108.90
25th / 30
WSH
110.58
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
118.17
25th / 30
WSH
+2.06
13th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
-9.27
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.56%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.28%20th/30
9.4129th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5416th/30
31.1729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.4412th/30
30.19%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.33%18th/30
30.734th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.5824th/30
53.237th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.7427th/30
57.73%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.93%13th/30
22.944th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.1317th/30
27.799th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4317th/30
82.54%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.31%13th/30
8.5330th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.5729th/30
33.6711th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.4622nd/30
7.7921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0627th/30
5.4410th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8327th/30
14.126th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.2226th/30
21.7612th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.4326th/30
Opponent
42.35%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.01%22nd/30
12.2010th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3611th/30
42.6428th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.475th/30
28.62%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.85%13th/30
28.5318th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.4628th/30
53.5226th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.6329th/30
53.30%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.76%18th/30
16.916th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1617th/30
19.852nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4920th/30
85.19%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.11%14th/30
14.8530th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.9519th/30
33.0922nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2313th/30
8.8215th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4224th/30
2.941st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.277th/30
14.1225th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8326th/30
23.8221st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.0228th/30
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