BKN90
FINAL
103NY
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Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
1-5
90
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
2-4
103
Market line: New York Knicks -14.5, total 222.0 · Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 103.8 – New York Knicks 118.3

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Knicks won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
193

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
14%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
31%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (222.0). The real combined score was 193.

O/U LINE 210
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
21.2
Julius RandlePF
20.8
Nolan TraoréPG
10.5
Day'Ron SharpeC
8.0
Egor DëminPG
7.8
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
25.5
Karl-Anthony TownsC
21.8
OG AnunobyPF
16.2
Josh HartSG
8.7
Mikal BridgesSF
6.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
105.57
29th / 30
Points
NY
106.43
27th / 30
BKN
43.57
17th / 30
Rebounds
NY
47.00
6th / 30
BKN
22.43
28th / 30
Assists
NY
25.86
T-17th / 30
BKN
99.35
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NY
95.58
29th / 30
BKN
50.17%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NY
49.92%
26th / 30
BKN
15.24%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NY
12.83%
11th / 30
BKN
25.65%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NY
30.25%
8th / 30
BKN
.332
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NY
.262
21st / 30
BKN
106.26
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
111.36
22nd / 30
BKN
114.89
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
110.01
6th / 30
BKN
-8.63
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NY
+1.35
15th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
41.74%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.87%27th/30
14.2412th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.954th/30
40.698th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.856th/30
34.98%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.71%10th/30
20.9930th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.9228th/30
43.7130th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.9714th/30
48.03%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.92%30th/30
21.5711th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.6821st/30
28.047th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.3618th/30
76.92%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.69%17th/30
11.3619th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.655th/30
32.5014th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.536th/30
8.7714th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.7722nd/30
5.0315th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3322nd/30
17.4027th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.2516th/30
25.7429th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0220th/30
Opponent
45.98%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.18%8th/30
15.1026th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3522nd/30
41.7027th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.6624th/30
36.21%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.29%T-15th/30
23.583rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.816th/30
42.421st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.985th/30
55.59%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.71%6th/30
22.4327th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.349th/30
28.7626th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.0611th/30
78.00%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.05%3rd/30
9.782nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.873rd/30
32.9320th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7824th/30
8.059th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.474th/30
4.318th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.3230th/30
16.1012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.1527th/30
24.3024th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8715th/30
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