ATL108
FINAL
104IND
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Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
3-4
108
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
2-5
104
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 116.6 – Indiana Pacers 118.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
44%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over21% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
19.3
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.3
CJ McCollumPG
14.4
Onyeka OkongwuC
11.9
Dyson DanielsSG
10.3
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Pascal SiakamPF
21.4
Andrew NembhardSG
18.5
Aaron NesmithSF
12.2
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
9.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
115.25
12th / 30
Points
IND
111.75
19th / 30
ATL
43.13
18th / 30
Rebounds
IND
41.63
T-23rd / 30
ATL
30.63
1st / 30
Assists
IND
27.25
9th / 30
ATL
101.69
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
99.77
13th / 30
ATL
52.36%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.64%
15th / 30
ATL
12.19%
6th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
13.23%
16th / 30
ATL
27.98%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
22.38%
28th / 30
ATL
.213
29th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.309
10th / 30
ATL
113.33
17th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
112.00
19th / 30
ATL
112.10
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
115.89
20th / 30
ATL
+1.23
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-3.88
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.50%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.58%14th/30
14.758th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.1522nd/30
42.654th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9619th/30
34.58%16th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.88%23rd/30
27.0416th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.9413th/30
51.2613th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.1121st/30
52.76%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.89%7th/30
15.0028th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6714th/30
20.0429th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.5612th/30
74.85%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.06%26th/30
13.2810th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.1526th/30
29.1327th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5719th/30
9.599th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5225th/30
3.5629th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5119th/30
14.267th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.9112th/30
23.1122nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.429th/30
Opponent
48.02%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.10%13th/30
10.451st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.6624th/30
33.802nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.2118th/30
30.91%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.38%26th/30
29.7526th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.688th/30
49.9012th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.2414th/30
59.61%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.12%4th/30
21.2623rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5518th/30
26.5521st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5615th/30
80.09%23rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.39%25th/30
10.829th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5315th/30
34.1727th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.2028th/30
8.9718th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1520th/30
5.9024th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8914th/30
17.704th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.6617th/30
19.543rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.6826th/30
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