DET124
FINAL
91CHA
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Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
5-1
124
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
3-4
91
Market line: Detroit Pistons -3.5, total 210.5 · Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 107.0 – Charlotte Hornets 103.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 33
COMBINED SCORE
215

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (210.5). The real combined score was 215.

O/U LINE 210 MARKET LINE
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 220
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
5% over95% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
1% over99% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
0% over100% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
22.2
Duncan RobinsonSF
16.8
Paul ReedC
13.8
Jalen DurenC
13.0
John CollinsPF
9.2
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
24.4
Naz ReidC
15.9
Dennis SchröderPG
11.7
Moussa DiabatéC
9.4
Sion JamesSG
3.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DET
111.86
18th / 30
Points
CHA
97.38
30th / 30
DET
44.57
12th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
46.75
7th / 30
DET
27.14
10th / 30
Assists
CHA
21.25
29th / 30
DET
97.13
25th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
94.71
30th / 30
DET
55.19%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
47.99%
30th / 30
DET
13.45%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
16.46%
29th / 30
DET
26.26%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
32.33%
3rd / 30
DET
.275
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.194
30th / 30
DET
115.16
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
102.81
30th / 30
DET
103.24
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
114.69
17th / 30
DET
+11.91
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-11.88
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.90%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.46%30th/30
14.569th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8613th/30
38.2415th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.851st/30
38.08%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.58%29th/30
26.6219th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.3629th/30
49.5618th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.1426th/30
53.71%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.75%24th/30
18.2423rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.5230th/30
24.1220th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.8230th/30
75.61%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.48%6th/30
11.4718th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.571st/30
34.418th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7910th/30
10.156th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6624th/30
6.772nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4111th/30
15.3017th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.6729th/30
22.8019th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.6510th/30
Opponent
41.17%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.98%21st/30
12.8014th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.1220th/30
40.0020th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.169th/30
31.99%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.05%28th/30
23.531st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9213th/30
48.246th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.2120th/30
48.78%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.58%12th/30
17.8011th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.4813th/30
24.1212th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.769th/30
73.78%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%18th/30
13.8226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.904th/30
32.2112th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6016th/30
8.9717th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.8230th/30
6.0325th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.499th/30
18.382nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5220th/30
23.2417th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.7014th/30
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