OKC117
FINAL
112CLE
← back to predictions

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-2
117
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-2
112
Market line: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5, total 227.5 · Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 111.5 – Cleveland Cavaliers 116.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Thunder won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
229

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (227.5). The real combined score was 229.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
26.0
Ajay MitchellSG
16.5
Jalen WilliamsSG
13.7
Chet HolmgrenC
12.0
Jared McCainSG
10.8
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
22.7
Evan MobleyPF
19.7
James HardenPG
16.7
Jarrett AllenC
15.3
Peyton WatsonSF
10.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
108.00
25th / 30
Points
CLE
119.71
5th / 30
OKC
46.57
9th / 30
Rebounds
CLE
47.86
4th / 30
OKC
21.14
30th / 30
Assists
CLE
29.00
2nd / 30
OKC
96.62
27th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
101.98
4th / 30
OKC
49.38%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
55.19%
8th / 30
OKC
11.25%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.82%
5th / 30
OKC
28.75%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
25.96%
22nd / 30
OKC
.220
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.286
17th / 30
OKC
111.78
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
117.40
8th / 30
OKC
111.48
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
113.89
14th / 30
OKC
+0.30
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+3.50
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.75%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.86%12th/30
10.6528th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.857th/30
33.2728th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.2110th/30
32.00%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.93%9th/30
30.753rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9018th/30
61.361st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8922nd/30
50.12%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.01%12th/30
18.3322nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.0518th/30
20.8527th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.5016th/30
87.94%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.73%23rd/30
13.319th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3520th/30
34.893rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.582nd/30
8.1318th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.4226th/30
6.215th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.887th/30
13.163rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.455th/30
20.401st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.454th/30
Opponent
43.27%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.76%12th/30
15.2328th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1716th/30
42.8829th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.3817th/30
35.52%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.31%11th/30
24.695th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.7220th/30
49.3811th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.2028th/30
50.00%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.03%8th/30
16.412nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.957th/30
22.036th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.855th/30
74.50%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.56%16th/30
13.3123rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1721st/30
32.9721st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3615th/30
6.802nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.863rd/30
5.6223rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.785th/30
14.6418th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.0328th/30
21.009th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.738th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service