BKN98
FINAL
90IND
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Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
0-5
98
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
2-4
90
Market line: Indiana Pacers -3.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 113.0 – Indiana Pacers 116.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nets won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
188

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 188.

O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Julius RandlePF
21.0
Michael Porter Jr.SF
20.8
Nolan TraoréPG
9.4
Egor DëminPG
7.8
Day'Ron SharpeC
6.6
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
22.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Andrew NembhardSG
17.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.4
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
9.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
108.17
25th / 30
Points
IND
112.86
18th / 30
BKN
44.50
15th / 30
Rebounds
IND
42.00
T-23rd / 30
BKN
22.83
28th / 30
Assists
IND
28.00
T-5th / 30
BKN
101.41
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
99.69
14th / 30
BKN
50.68%
26th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.79%
14th / 30
BKN
15.59%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
12.77%
15th / 30
BKN
25.38%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
23.38%
27th / 30
BKN
.329
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.311
12th / 30
BKN
106.66
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
113.21
17th / 30
BKN
114.39
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
117.08
22nd / 30
BKN
-7.72
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-3.87
21st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.27%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.46%15th/30
14.1310th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.7520th/30
40.2610th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.4017th/30
35.10%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.10%18th/30
21.3730th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.6613th/30
43.7229th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.5820th/30
48.87%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.78%9th/30
21.538th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.6315th/30
27.618th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.089th/30
77.98%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.49%28th/30
11.0122nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.8923rd/30
32.8715th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.2420th/30
8.8716th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.8827th/30
4.6016th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8728th/30
17.7527th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.479th/30
26.1329th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5015th/30
Opponent
46.67%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.15%19th/30
14.4624th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4718th/30
40.4326th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.5515th/30
35.77%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.88%20th/30
24.654th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.9415th/30
43.392nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.0113th/30
56.82%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.87%18th/30
21.6924th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.7928th/30
28.1027th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.0926th/30
77.19%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.12%25th/30
9.372nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8913th/30
32.3815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.6829th/30
7.897th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7416th/30
4.119th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0217th/30
15.9412th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4722nd/30
23.5018th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.9427th/30
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