BOS108
FINAL
97ORL
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Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
4-1
108
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
2-3
97
Market line: Boston Celtics -7.5, total 221.5 · Model expected score: Boston Celtics 114.5 – Orlando Magic 107.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
205

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
72%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (221.5). The real combined score was 205.

O/U LINE 210
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
6% over94% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
27.6
Paul GeorgePF
21.4
Derrick WhiteSG
11.8
Mitchell RobinsonC
6.6
Jordan WalshPF
5.2
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Franz WagnerSF
20.8
Desmond BaneSG
17.2
Wendell Carter Jr.C
14.8
Anthony BlackPG
14.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BOS
118.67
8th / 30
Points
ORL
107.67
26th / 30
BOS
43.17
21st / 30
Rebounds
ORL
40.00
T-28th / 30
BOS
28.00
T-5th / 30
Assists
ORL
26.33
16th / 30
BOS
98.95
18th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
98.19
23rd / 30
BOS
55.03%
10th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
53.35%
15th / 30
BOS
12.76%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
15.14%
25th / 30
BOS
28.30%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
23.39%
26th / 30
BOS
.323
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.317
9th / 30
BOS
119.92
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
109.65
24th / 30
BOS
110.32
8th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
118.82
26th / 30
BOS
+9.60
5th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
-9.17
25th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.87%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.12%20th/30
14.485th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.7514th/30
40.768th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.8712th/30
35.54%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.37%11th/30
27.1217th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.9327th/30
48.0023rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.6426th/30
56.49%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.61%18th/30
22.237th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5412th/30
28.636th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4812th/30
77.65%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.56%14th/30
12.6313th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.8527th/30
30.9921st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.8922nd/30
9.269th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.1326th/30
4.0426th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2420th/30
14.8213th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.9724th/30
25.1027th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.9526th/30
Opponent
42.69%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.14%18th/30
14.9928th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.7313th/30
44.3030th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8310th/30
33.84%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.56%13th/30
22.401st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.8727th/30
43.291st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.5128th/30
51.75%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.82%17th/30
20.5518th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8822nd/30
27.7924th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.5023rd/30
73.94%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.93%10th/30
14.3226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.9225th/30
32.0013th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2514th/30
7.928th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1721st/30
4.5511th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.077th/30
17.524th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5826th/30
26.6130th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.9729th/30
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