OKC98
FINAL
119HOU
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1
98
VS
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
5-1
119
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 113.2 – Houston Rockets 112.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 52%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Rockets won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Houston Rockets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
52%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
26.0
Ajay MitchellSG
18.6
Jalen WilliamsSG
13.7
Chet HolmgrenC
12.0
Jared McCainSG
11.0
HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Alperen ŞengünC
24.5
Kevin DurantPF
23.3
Amen ThompsonSF
17.7
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
17.2
Fred VanVleetPG
13.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
106.50
28th / 30
Points
HOU
120.71
4th / 30
OKC
45.33
11th / 30
Rebounds
HOU
45.14
13th / 30
OKC
21.67
29th / 30
Assists
HOU
28.00
T-5th / 30
OKC
96.69
29th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
HOU
97.82
25th / 30
OKC
49.45%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
HOU
56.60%
3rd / 30
OKC
12.00%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
HOU
12.75%
14th / 30
OKC
28.52%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
HOU
32.14%
2nd / 30
OKC
.218
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
HOU
.318
8th / 30
OKC
110.14
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
123.41
1st / 30
OKC
110.66
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
HOU
110.70
10th / 30
OKC
-0.52
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
HOU
+12.71
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.91%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.17%4th/30
10.3427th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1418th/30
33.4426th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.7425th/30
30.93%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.96%4th/30
30.684th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.386th/30
59.982nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.775th/30
51.15%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.47%11th/30
17.7522nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.225th/30
20.3428th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.197th/30
87.29%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.38%5th/30
12.9311th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.149th/30
33.967th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0112th/30
8.6217th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.937th/30
6.555th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.848th/30
13.965th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7512th/30
20.516th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.861st/30
Opponent
43.07%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.48%13th/30
14.6527th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.839th/30
41.5428th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.2920th/30
35.27%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.11%4th/30
24.994th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3523rd/30
50.5016th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.2618th/30
49.49%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.26%24th/30
16.727th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.504th/30
21.556th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.347th/30
77.60%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.86%6th/30
13.6226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2716th/30
32.4014th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.751st/30
6.722nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4923rd/30
6.0325th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.514th/30
15.8613th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.7714th/30
21.2010th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.3718th/30
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