CLE136
FINAL
111MIL
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2
136
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4
111
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 118.4 – Milwaukee Bucks 113.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
63%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 240
34% over ✓66% under
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.2
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
James HardenPG
17.4
Jarrett AllenC
13.4
Peyton WatsonSF
12.0
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.4
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
17.8
Ryan RollinsPG
11.6
Kyle KuzmaPF
10.8
Myles TurnerC
6.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
121.00
2nd / 30
Points
MIL
113.00
18th / 30
CLE
48.17
4th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
49.00
2nd / 30
CLE
28.67
4th / 30
Assists
MIL
26.00
20th / 30
CLE
102.94
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
102.76
7th / 30
CLE
55.31%
8th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
51.96%
21st / 30
CLE
12.63%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
13.53%
18th / 30
CLE
26.72%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
29.90%
8th / 30
CLE
.289
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.239
25th / 30
CLE
117.54
8th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
109.97
22nd / 30
CLE
112.69
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
122.78
28th / 30
CLE
+4.86
10th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-12.81
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.25%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.21%23rd/30
14.258th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.119th/30
38.5313th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.683rd/30
36.97%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.85%20th/30
27.5215th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.1121st/30
49.8719th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.3121st/30
55.19%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.96%19th/30
19.7514th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.4128th/30
25.5815th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.7326th/30
77.22%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
70.90%29th/30
11.3320th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.115th/30
35.462nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5710th/30
7.4524th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.5130th/30
6.317th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8927th/30
14.419th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.7319th/30
20.567th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2215th/30
Opponent
45.09%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.69%22nd/30
13.2816th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.1121st/30
39.3421st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.3925th/30
33.74%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.94%14th/30
28.3318th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3624th/30
52.9425th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.7717th/30
53.52%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.83%25th/30
16.192nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.7325th/30
21.535th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.0920th/30
75.19%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.24%24th/30
12.7919th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.6812th/30
31.099th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0923rd/30
7.123rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7324th/30
3.725th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.1627th/30
13.7625th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.0030th/30
20.898th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.143rd/30
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