PHI109
FINAL
104CHA
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
5-1
109
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
3-3
104
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 115.0 – Charlotte Hornets 118.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ 76ers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
41%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.2
Jaylen BrownSF
20.6
Joel EmbiidC
19.2
LeBron JamesSF
16.4
VJ EdgecombeSG
11.6
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
24.5
Naz ReidC
16.2
Dennis SchröderPG
13.0
Moussa DiabatéC
9.3
Sion JamesSG
3.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
108.71
25th / 30
Points
CHA
98.29
30th / 30
PHI
40.86
26th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
47.14
6th / 30
PHI
25.14
22nd / 30
Assists
CHA
21.57
30th / 30
PHI
98.99
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
94.60
30th / 30
PHI
50.81%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
48.29%
29th / 30
PHI
10.90%
1st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
15.74%
29th / 30
PHI
19.94%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
31.65%
3rd / 30
PHI
.287
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.189
30th / 30
PHI
109.82
24th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
103.89
30th / 30
PHI
105.92
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
112.50
14th / 30
PHI
+3.90
11th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-8.61
24th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.08%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.78%30th/30
11.9823rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8911th/30
35.2122nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.961st/30
34.02%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.58%28th/30
27.2717th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.8628th/30
53.837th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.6025th/30
50.67%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.32%21st/30
19.3417th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.5030th/30
25.5416th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.5230th/30
75.71%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.76%4th/30
9.0928th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.102nd/30
32.1816th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.735th/30
9.678th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5523rd/30
5.0513th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.2912th/30
12.271st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.7229th/30
22.5116th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2013th/30
Opponent
43.33%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.52%14th/30
11.406th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4418th/30
35.507th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.7910th/30
32.11%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.55%24th/30
26.5512th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.4311th/30
52.1023rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.7920th/30
50.97%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.02%6th/30
18.6212th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3314th/30
24.9714th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9213th/30
74.57%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.58%16th/30
13.2822nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.427th/30
36.5130th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6217th/30
6.061st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.1227th/30
5.9223rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.088th/30
17.038th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5021st/30
20.787th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1017th/30
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