CLE111
FINAL
114ATL
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-1
111
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
2-3
114
Market line: Atlanta Hawks -1.0, total 239.0 · Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 119.0 – Atlanta Hawks 119.9

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
47%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (239.0). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over31% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
26.7
Evan MobleyPF
18.7
James HardenPG
15.7
Jarrett AllenC
15.0
Peyton WatsonSF
11.3
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
21.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
18.8
CJ McCollumPG
17.3
Dyson DanielsSG
13.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
118.00
9th / 30
Points
ATL
119.17
7th / 30
CLE
46.60
8th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
43.33
21st / 30
CLE
26.20
15th / 30
Assists
ATL
32.50
1st / 30
CLE
102.99
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
101.73
12th / 30
CLE
53.81%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
54.30%
8th / 30
CLE
13.32%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
11.42%
3rd / 30
CLE
25.69%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
27.30%
15th / 30
CLE
.314
10th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.232
26th / 30
CLE
114.58
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
117.14
7th / 30
CLE
113.61
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
112.55
12th / 30
CLE
+0.97
14th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+4.59
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.19%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.49%10th/30
13.2115th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.586th/30
37.2917th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.964th/30
35.42%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.60%11th/30
26.8019th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.8310th/30
49.3321st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4310th/30
54.33%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.00%11th/30
21.368th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.7328th/30
27.199th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.6326th/30
78.57%T-11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.73%T-25th/30
10.8822nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.6212th/30
34.375th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.9824th/30
7.3824th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.0112th/30
6.804th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.4429th/30
15.1513th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.273rd/30
21.367th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.5921st/30
Opponent
45.96%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.86%22nd/30
12.6215th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.476th/30
37.2917th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.7013th/30
33.85%14th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.25%7th/30
29.3224th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.8320th/30
53.9924th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.317th/30
54.32%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.47%26th/30
17.096th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.4820th/30
22.336th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8916th/30
76.52%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.11%21st/30
12.4316th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9614th/30
31.4610th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5922nd/30
7.5710th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.548th/30
3.696th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.7323rd/30
13.9822nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.878th/30
22.5311th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.324th/30
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