LAL103
FINAL
87LAC
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Los Angeles Lakers vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
3-1
103
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-2
87
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 116.7 – LA Clippers 115.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
190

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
52%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 190.

O/U LINE 210
88% over12% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
34.3
Austin ReavesSG
26.7
Walker KesslerC
16.7
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.3
Matisse ThybulleSG
9.0
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
24.0
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.7
Rui HachimuraPF
10.3
Kris DunnPG
9.7
Isaiah JacksonC
9.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
123.20
2nd / 30
Points
LAC
106.50
29th / 30
LAL
38.00
30th / 30
Rebounds
LAC
40.75
27th / 30
LAL
24.00
T-25th / 30
Assists
LAC
25.00
T-20th / 30
LAL
99.53
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
99.82
18th / 30
LAL
61.72%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
54.53%
7th / 30
LAL
15.05%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
20.21%
30th / 30
LAL
25.14%
23rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
25.61%
22nd / 30
LAL
.382
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.306
13th / 30
LAL
123.78
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
106.70
28th / 30
LAL
114.14
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
108.20
6th / 30
LAL
+9.65
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
-1.50
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
52.87%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.94%13th/30
14.278th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.7811th/30
36.3719th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.3221st/30
39.23%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.01%4th/30
28.3314th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.0429th/30
44.2129th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.8328th/30
64.09%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.40%25th/30
24.312nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2917th/30
30.742nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5521st/30
79.08%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.57%12th/30
9.2427th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.5224th/30
28.9427th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.3123rd/30
10.854th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
12.522nd/30
5.839th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5119th/30
16.6823rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
23.0430th/30
24.3124th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0411th/30
Opponent
46.68%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.18%22nd/30
12.4614th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.771st/30
35.176th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.801st/30
35.43%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.91%15th/30
27.1311th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.0626th/30
49.638th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.6028th/30
54.66%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.05%17th/30
22.5126th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.7812th/30
29.5429th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8015th/30
76.19%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.82%5th/30
13.0622nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7717th/30
27.532nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.567th/30
10.4529th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
13.2730th/30
3.011st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7610th/30
19.092nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.284th/30
24.1121st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.545th/30
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