PHI114
FINAL
109IND
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
3-1
114
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
2-2
109
Market line: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5, total 238.5 · Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 120.1 – Indiana Pacers 118.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
223

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
55%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (238.5). The real combined score was 223.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.8
Joel EmbiidC
21.7
Jaylen BrownSF
20.8
LeBron JamesSF
16.3
VJ EdgecombeSG
12.3
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
23.5
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Andrew NembhardSG
16.0
Aaron NesmithSF
11.7
Ivica ZubacC
9.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
110.80
21st / 30
Points
IND
115.00
13th / 30
PHI
42.20
23rd / 30
Rebounds
IND
44.00
19th / 30
PHI
24.60
T-22nd / 30
Assists
IND
29.40
3rd / 30
PHI
103.05
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
101.65
12th / 30
PHI
49.01%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.70%
11th / 30
PHI
10.87%
1st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
12.80%
12th / 30
PHI
18.91%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
22.75%
26th / 30
PHI
.303
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.296
16th / 30
PHI
107.52
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
113.14
15th / 30
PHI
104.22
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
112.94
17th / 30
PHI
+3.30
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
+0.20
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.76%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.09%7th/30
11.0624th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.6122nd/30
33.9624th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1917th/30
32.57%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.22%23rd/30
26.7819th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.719th/30
54.546th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.5716th/30
49.11%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.75%5th/30
20.7712th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.8918th/30
26.7810th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9714th/30
77.54%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.73%26th/30
8.7330th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4325th/30
32.2216th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8614th/30
9.5111th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.3028th/30
5.4312th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7217th/30
12.231st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5611th/30
23.6820th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.849th/30
Opponent
42.70%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.49%10th/30
10.093rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.4013th/30
32.223rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.0114th/30
31.33%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.43%17th/30
26.789th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.568th/30
54.1525th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5517th/30
49.46%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.53%7th/30
20.3817th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.6328th/30
27.7523rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.9424th/30
73.43%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.99%25th/30
13.3923rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.0014th/30
37.4630th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.4228th/30
5.821st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2520th/30
6.0227th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.9026th/30
16.898th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7725th/30
21.358th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.1928th/30
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