POR136
FINAL
129LAL
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Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
2-0
136
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
3-0
129
Market line: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5, total 236.5 · Model expected score: Portland Trail Blazers 116.5 – Los Angeles Lakers 120.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Blazers won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
265

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (236.5). The real combined score was 265.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 250
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over ✓91% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Deni AvdijaSF
22.0
Damian LillardPG
22.0
Toumani CamaraPF
18.5
Ja MorantPG
13.0
Donovan ClinganC
9.5
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
34.3
Austin ReavesSG
26.7
Walker KesslerC
16.7
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.3
Matisse ThybulleSG
9.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
POR
129.33
1st / 30
Points
LAL
128.25
2nd / 30
POR
46.33
9th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
35.50
30th / 30
POR
30.67
2nd / 30
Assists
LAL
26.00
T-13th / 30
POR
100.16
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
100.96
14th / 30
POR
60.63%
2nd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
64.60%
1st / 30
POR
11.52%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
14.59%
23rd / 30
POR
30.25%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
21.17%
27th / 30
POR
.332
T-6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.373
2nd / 30
POR
129.13
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
127.03
2nd / 30
POR
110.49
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
119.11
23rd / 30
POR
+18.64
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+7.92
9th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.12%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
54.97%1st/30
16.971st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.354th/30
43.602nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1418th/30
38.93%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
41.33%1st/30
28.6213th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4814th/30
45.5926th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.5930th/30
62.77%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
66.86%1st/30
20.9710th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.024th/30
29.624th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.712nd/30
70.79%27th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.83%8th/30
11.9819th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
7.1830th/30
34.286th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.9829th/30
8.3219th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6611th/30
2.6629th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.948th/30
13.313rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8516th/30
20.633rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.7623rd/30
Opponent
45.88%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.14%26th/30
10.323rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8818th/30
35.618th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.6610th/30
28.97%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.11%21st/30
28.6219th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.4722nd/30
49.257th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.5111th/30
58.11%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.33%24th/30
22.3024th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.5423rd/30
27.6221st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.7127th/30
80.72%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.50%7th/30
9.654th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1220th/30
27.623rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
26.742nd/30
6.994th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6625th/30
3.996th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.481st/30
14.6420th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.587th/30
22.9610th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7716th/30
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