SAC103
FINAL
130SA
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Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
0-3
103
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
1-2
130
Market line: San Antonio Spurs -17.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: Sacramento Kings 106.0 – San Antonio Spurs 123.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Ben SimmonsOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 90%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
9%
Won by 1-3
4%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
21%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
40%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
29.0
Darius Acuff Jr.PG
22.3
Domantas SabonisC
18.7
Precious AchiuwaC
13.7
Keegan MurrayPF
7.0
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Dylan HarperSG
20.0
Victor WembanyamaC
20.0
Stephon CastlePG
19.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
17.3
Devin VassellSG
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
SAC
107.75
28th / 30
Points
SA
116.50
T-12th / 30
SAC
41.50
T-24th / 30
Rebounds
SA
43.50
T-18th / 30
SAC
22.75
28th / 30
Assists
SA
27.75
T-5th / 30
SAC
99.92
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.85
21st / 30
SAC
49.86%
25th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
53.91%
14th / 30
SAC
12.34%
8th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.49%
3rd / 30
SAC
25.77%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
24.57%
23rd / 30
SAC
.255
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.229
27th / 30
SAC
107.84
24th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
116.67
10th / 30
SAC
125.60
29th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
109.91
9th / 30
SAC
-17.76
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+6.76
10th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.51%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.63%12th/30
9.7626th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5213th/30
32.5327th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.3114th/30
30.00%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.29%12th/30
30.774th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.799th/30
58.553rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.586th/30
52.56%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.59%16th/30
17.0124th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.5227th/30
23.2725th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.2827th/30
73.12%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.65%10th/30
12.5116th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.7721st/30
29.0225th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8014th/30
6.7626th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7616th/30
2.5030th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.015th/30
14.268th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.272nd/30
23.5216th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.784th/30
Opponent
49.45%28th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.03%18th/30
15.0127th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.0212th/30
40.2824th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.292nd/30
37.27%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.67%29th/30
30.0226th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.5423rd/30
50.7913th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.0830th/30
59.11%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.86%5th/30
20.5217th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.771st/30
26.7718th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
18.031st/30
76.64%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.94%26th/30
13.0118th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.765th/30
36.0328th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0522nd/30
8.5115th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.767th/30
5.7521st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0126th/30
12.7627th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2721st/30
21.276th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.788th/30
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