GS134
FINAL
114DEN
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Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
0-3
134
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
1-1
114
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 116.3 – Denver Nuggets 121.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Warriors won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
35%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
23.5
Yaxel LendeborgSF
18.7
Brandin PodziemskiSG
18.0
Brandon WilliamsPG
12.7
De'Anthony MeltonPG
11.7
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
24.0
Jamal MurrayPG
24.0
Aaron GordonPF
13.5
Christian BraunSG
11.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
5.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
GS
117.25
10th / 30
Points
DEN
113.00
T-16th / 30
GS
41.50
T-25th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
45.33
T-12th / 30
GS
25.75
14th / 30
Assists
DEN
24.67
T-22nd / 30
GS
97.23
30th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
99.65
20th / 30
GS
53.99%
13th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
51.89%
20th / 30
GS
14.38%
20th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
12.72%
10th / 30
GS
35.71%
1st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
30.50%
11th / 30
GS
.311
10th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.317
9th / 30
GS
120.60
4th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
113.40
12th / 30
GS
124.20
29th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
122.10
27th / 30
GS
-3.60
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
-8.70
25th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.30%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.66%16th/30
15.694th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0423rd/30
41.145th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.4620th/30
38.13%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.13%23rd/30
25.2023rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.4410th/30
49.1118th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.199th/30
51.31%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.35%12th/30
23.146th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.4110th/30
28.039th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.108th/30
82.57%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%15th/30
16.711st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.387th/30
25.9730th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.1119th/30
10.546th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7013th/30
3.6026th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6820th/30
17.2325th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7212th/30
23.6619th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.7513th/30
Opponent
52.82%30th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.31%20th/30
12.8618th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.7226th/30
34.206th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.8128th/30
37.59%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.20%20th/30
32.9130th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.4422nd/30
52.4619th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5214th/30
62.75%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.14%24th/30
19.8016th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.0714th/30
24.1713th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.744th/30
81.91%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
87.69%30th/30
12.0913th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.3826th/30
30.088th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7821st/30
10.2927th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7016th/30
5.9124th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3513th/30
17.747th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.7214th/30
24.1720th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.0928th/30
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