CHI99
FINAL
134BOS
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Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
1-2
99
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
1-1
134
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 110.4 – Boston Celtics 122.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 35
COMBINED SCORE
233

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
20%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
25%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 233.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
22.3
Norman PowellSG
19.3
Matas BuzelisSF
15.0
Jalen SmithC
14.3
Josh GiddeyPG
5.7
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paul GeorgePF
26.5
Jayson TatumPF
24.5
Derrick WhiteSG
14.5
Mitchell RobinsonC
4.0
Jordan WalshPF
2.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
110.75
23rd / 30
Points
BOS
118.00
9th / 30
CHI
46.25
10th / 30
Rebounds
BOS
43.33
17th / 30
CHI
22.50
28th / 30
Assists
BOS
26.33
T-10th / 30
CHI
106.99
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BOS
98.23
25th / 30
CHI
46.11%
30th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BOS
56.90%
4th / 30
CHI
15.47%
29th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BOS
13.91%
17th / 30
CHI
28.93%
15th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BOS
30.60%
10th / 30
CHI
.383
1st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BOS
.246
26th / 30
CHI
103.51
30th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
120.12
5th / 30
CHI
121.04
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BOS
109.60
9th / 30
CHI
-17.52
30th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BOS
+10.52
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
40.56%30th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.01%10th/30
9.3526th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
17.981st/30
39.268th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.423rd/30
23.81%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.40%1st/30
24.7729th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.7728th/30
44.8627th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.5221st/30
55.21%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.05%25th/30
25.941st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.6326th/30
32.251st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.4026th/30
80.43%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.24%20th/30
13.3212th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.918th/30
29.9123rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.2020th/30
8.8816th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.527th/30
3.9725th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4121st/30
17.9928th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2918th/30
24.3022nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.7926th/30
Opponent
48.01%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.20%6th/30
14.0222nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.5925th/30
35.9813th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.0829th/30
38.96%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.68%T-18th/30
28.2718th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.061st/30
52.1117th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.762nd/30
54.26%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.59%10th/30
22.4324th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.7222nd/30
30.1428th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.5022nd/30
74.42%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%15th/30
13.3219th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.5722nd/30
32.7120th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5615th/30
9.1119th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4813th/30
5.3714th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.077th/30
15.4217th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.343rd/30
24.5323rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.7726th/30
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