WSH103
FINAL
110CHA
← back to predictions

Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
2-1
103
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
2-1
110
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 112.9 – Charlotte Hornets 124.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hornets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
19%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
26%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
22.3
Anthony DavisPF
20.7
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
17.0
Bilal CoulibalySF
9.7
Alex SarrC
7.7
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Naz ReidC
20.0
Brandon MillerSF
19.3
Dennis SchröderPG
16.0
Moussa DiabatéC
8.7
Sion JamesSG
2.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
114.25
14th / 30
Points
CHA
104.00
29th / 30
WSH
43.25
T-18th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
48.00
6th / 30
WSH
24.50
25th / 30
Assists
CHA
21.50
29th / 30
WSH
100.76
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
97.53
29th / 30
WSH
52.18%
19th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
48.77%
26th / 30
WSH
12.77%
11th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
15.41%
27th / 30
WSH
22.94%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
34.22%
3rd / 30
WSH
.346
3rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.189
30th / 30
WSH
113.38
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
106.63
25th / 30
WSH
113.63
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
113.81
18th / 30
WSH
-0.25
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-7.18
23rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.80%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.37%28th/30
9.1827th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.8411th/30
31.2627th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.392nd/30
29.37%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.83%26th/30
30.765th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.8626th/30
54.097th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.1625th/30
56.88%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.72%21st/30
24.314th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.3829th/30
29.524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.6929th/30
82.35%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
86.96%2nd/30
9.6827th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.402nd/30
33.2510th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8113th/30
7.4423rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.9224th/30
5.4611th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3814th/30
14.399th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.4629th/30
23.5718th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.992nd/30
Opponent
43.72%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.82%18th/30
11.418th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3321st/30
38.9519th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.639th/30
29.30%4th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.41%23rd/30
30.0224th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2017th/30
55.8228th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.0620th/30
53.78%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.14%13th/30
19.3515th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.4310th/30
22.588th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.307th/30
85.71%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.16%18th/30
15.1328th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.516th/30
32.5018th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5314th/30
8.6815th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4824th/30
3.474th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.369th/30
13.6523rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6415th/30
24.8127th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8416th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service