MEM123
FINAL
112SAC
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
2-0
123
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
0-2
112
Market line: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5, total 236.5 · Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 120.0 – Sacramento Kings 116.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (236.5). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MARKET LINE
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
36.5
Cameron BoozerPF
16.0
Jaylen WellsSG
14.5
Cedric CowardSG
7.0
Zach EdeyC
7.0
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
25.0
Darius Acuff Jr.PG
22.5
Domantas SabonisC
20.5
Keegan MurrayPF
7.0
De'Andre HunterSF
5.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
119.00
T-8th / 30
Points
SAC
109.33
25th / 30
MEM
52.67
2nd / 30
Rebounds
SAC
42.67
T-19th / 30
MEM
24.67
T-18th / 30
Assists
SAC
21.00
30th / 30
MEM
98.53
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SAC
100.69
18th / 30
MEM
53.64%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SAC
49.82%
22nd / 30
MEM
13.93%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SAC
12.56%
9th / 30
MEM
38.24%
1st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SAC
25.69%
18th / 30
MEM
.280
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SAC
.295
16th / 30
MEM
120.78
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
108.58
21st / 30
MEM
109.28
10th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
123.15
27th / 30
MEM
+11.50
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SAC
-14.57
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.82%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.02%19th/30
14.558th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.6130th/30
38.579th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.7929th/30
37.72%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.96%28th/30
28.0815th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.783rd/30
54.477th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.933rd/30
51.55%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.93%16th/30
20.9812th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2017th/30
26.0515th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4814th/30
80.52%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.50%24th/30
17.592nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2517th/30
35.864th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.1323rd/30
6.7726th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6122nd/30
7.105th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.3230th/30
16.9221st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5710th/30
26.3929th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.8419th/30
Opponent
44.66%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.81%23rd/30
11.8413th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2424th/30
35.8614th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.0523rd/30
33.02%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.68%17th/30
26.3913th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1319th/30
49.7310th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.669th/30
53.06%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.67%26th/30
20.9820th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.1822nd/30
28.4222nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.1323rd/30
73.81%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.14%13th/30
13.1920th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.2425th/30
28.425th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.4225th/30
9.8121st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9414th/30
7.7830th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6318th/30
16.9210th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.5826th/30
25.7126th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.189th/30
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