LAC101
FINAL
108OKC
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LA Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-1
101
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
2-0
108
Market line: Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5, total 221.0 · Model expected score: LA Clippers 103.3 – Oklahoma City Thunder 117.8

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
209

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
14%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
9%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
31%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (221.0). The real combined score was 209.

O/U LINE 210
73% over27% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
5% over95% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
28.0
Rui HachimuraPF
13.0
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
12.0
Isaiah JacksonC
9.5
Kris DunnPG
7.0
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
24.5
Jalen WilliamsSG
16.5
Chet HolmgrenC
13.0
Cason WallaceSG
7.5
Isaiah HartensteinC
5.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAC
113.00
16th / 30
Points
OKC
106.67
28th / 30
LAC
40.67
24th / 30
Rebounds
OKC
46.33
9th / 30
LAC
27.67
T-6th / 30
Assists
OKC
23.00
T-27th / 30
LAC
101.76
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
98.26
25th / 30
LAC
58.33%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
48.42%
26th / 30
LAC
19.70%
30th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
11.29%
4th / 30
LAC
24.79%
20th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
29.29%
13th / 30
LAC
.289
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.180
30th / 30
LAC
111.05
17th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
108.56
22nd / 30
LAC
107.77
8th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
98.04
2nd / 30
LAC
+3.28
11th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+10.52
7th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.19%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.61%23rd/30
14.747th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.2022nd/30
36.0317th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.2524th/30
40.91%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.67%15th/30
24.9027th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.858th/30
44.5528th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
63.101st/30
55.88%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.31%28th/30
17.0324th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.2728th/30
23.2624th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.3030th/30
73.24%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
88.24%2nd/30
9.8322nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.918th/30
30.1422nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.2510th/30
12.123rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.874th/30
4.2620th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
8.141st/30
22.2830th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.234th/30
20.964th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.353rd/30
Opponent
48.06%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.63%1st/30
9.833rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.208th/30
27.521st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.6211th/30
35.71%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.43%8th/30
30.7926th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.093rd/30
57.0029th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.2316th/30
54.02%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.02%1st/30
16.716th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.284th/30
22.936th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.032nd/30
72.86%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.42%16th/30
11.147th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5516th/30
29.8110th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5923rd/30
12.4530th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8010th/30
4.5910th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.7719th/30
17.697th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
20.692nd/30
19.982nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.3910th/30
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