TOR94
FINAL
117MIN
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Toronto Raptors vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
2-0
94
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
2-0
117
Market line: Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5, total 232.5 · Model expected score: Toronto Raptors 115.5 – Minnesota Timberwolves 117.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
211

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
45%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (232.5). The real combined score was 211.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Scottie BarnesPF
25.5
RJ BarrettSF
21.5
Kawhi LeonardSF
19.5
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.5
Jakob PoeltlC
4.5
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
30.0
LaMelo BallPG
16.5
Jaden McDanielsPF
16.0
Jonathan KumingaPF
11.5
Rudy GobertC
9.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
TOR
113.67
15th / 30
Points
MIN
121.00
T-6th / 30
TOR
46.00
T-10th / 30
Rebounds
MIN
54.00
1st / 30
TOR
25.33
T-14th / 30
Assists
MIN
26.33
10th / 30
TOR
103.75
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIN
100.73
17th / 30
TOR
47.07%
29th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIN
57.14%
6th / 30
TOR
11.33%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIN
13.65%
16th / 30
TOR
30.82%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIN
36.09%
2nd / 30
TOR
.303
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIN
.308
12th / 30
TOR
109.56
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
120.13
6th / 30
TOR
99.92
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
96.96
1st / 30
TOR
+9.64
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIN
+23.17
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.41%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.99%9th/30
8.6729th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.553rd/30
33.0925th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.057th/30
26.21%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.37%1st/30
30.845th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8118th/30
60.082nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.2913th/30
51.34%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.26%21st/30
21.8510th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.8826th/30
28.2710th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.8011th/30
77.27%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
60.71%30th/30
15.745th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.884th/30
28.6028th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
37.732nd/30
13.491st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6013th/30
5.7810th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3019th/30
13.496th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.2218th/30
26.6730th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5010th/30
Opponent
41.49%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.36%7th/30
9.964th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.602nd/30
33.415th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.4016th/30
29.81%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
23.64%2nd/30
22.171st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.1315th/30
44.022nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.327th/30
50.36%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.22%25th/30
25.7029th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.891st/30
34.3830th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.845th/30
74.77%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
68.18%2nd/30
11.5711th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.601st/30
35.3424th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.134th/30
8.3512th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6018th/30
5.4617th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9614th/30
22.491st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.5513th/30
26.6729th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.4825th/30
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