ORL111
FINAL
102NY
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Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
0-2
111
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
0-2
102
Market line: New York Knicks -8.5, total 224.5 · Model expected score: Orlando Magic 108.0 – New York Knicks 116.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Magic won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
26%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (224.5). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220 MARKET LINE
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
38% over62% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Wendell Carter Jr.C
21.0
Franz WagnerSF
20.0
Desmond BaneSG
11.5
Jalen SuggsPG
10.0
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Karl-Anthony TownsC
20.5
Jalen BrunsonPG
20.0
OG AnunobyPF
15.0
Josh HartSG
12.0
Mikal BridgesSF
2.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ORL
109.67
24th / 30
Points
NY
101.67
30th / 30
ORL
43.67
17th / 30
Rebounds
NY
47.33
8th / 30
ORL
27.33
8th / 30
Assists
NY
24.67
T-18th / 30
ORL
102.92
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NY
97.93
28th / 30
ORL
52.72%
17th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NY
47.57%
28th / 30
ORL
14.88%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NY
12.84%
11th / 30
ORL
20.77%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NY
26.57%
17th / 30
ORL
.307
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NY
.270
23rd / 30
ORL
106.55
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
103.81
29th / 30
ORL
113.03
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
110.28
11th / 30
ORL
-6.48
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NY
-6.47
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.14%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.82%29th/30
12.6314th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.2516th/30
39.196th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.7814th/30
32.23%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.43%18th/30
24.9426th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.8528th/30
44.0529th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.109th/30
56.62%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.79%29th/30
18.7818th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.3621st/30
25.5920th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.5121st/30
73.42%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
70.83%28th/30
8.7427th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.9314th/30
33.687th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.405th/30
7.4523rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.8125th/30
4.2121st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7717th/30
16.5220th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.9813th/30
25.2623rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8112th/30
Opponent
44.13%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.56%8th/30
11.9814th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.9826th/30
35.9515th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.1924th/30
33.33%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.36%22nd/30
28.1816th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.174th/30
55.0624th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.678th/30
51.18%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.65%5th/30
20.7319th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.027th/30
29.1524th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.784th/30
71.11%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.13%18th/30
14.5726th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.853rd/30
33.3622nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.7428th/30
8.1011th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.155th/30
3.566th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.8126th/30
13.9323rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.9129th/30
22.9911th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.4914th/30
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