NO135
FINAL
141DEN
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
0-2
135
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
0-1
141
Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 116.7 – Denver Nuggets 124.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
276

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 276.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 230
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 250
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 260
17% over ✓83% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
20.7
Dejounte MurrayPG
20.3
Trey Murphy IIISF
15.3
Yves MissiC
9.5
DeAndre JordanC
9.0
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
24.0
Jamal MurrayPG
24.0
Aaron GordonPF
13.5
Christian BraunSG
11.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
5.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
NO
124.67
T-3rd / 30
Points
DEN
112.50
17th / 30
NO
45.33
13th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
52.00
T-2nd / 30
NO
24.67
19th / 30
Assists
DEN
21.50
T-29th / 30
NO
105.58
5th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
102.32
12th / 30
NO
53.27%
14th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
50.00%
21st / 30
NO
12.93%
11th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
13.70%
17th / 30
NO
27.21%
17th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
33.33%
T-4th / 30
NO
.342
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.337
8th / 30
NO
118.08
8th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
109.95
19th / 30
NO
121.23
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
112.88
15th / 30
NO
-3.16
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
-2.93
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.00%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.65%22nd/30
9.1625th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.2421st/30
29.6828th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.6316th/30
30.85%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.87%22nd/30
32.524th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3616th/30
57.143rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.8216th/30
56.91%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.85%17th/30
25.573rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.5012th/30
29.688th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.817th/30
86.17%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.13%22nd/30
11.6816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.135th/30
31.2617th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.696th/30
11.056th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.8221st/30
5.0514th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.9121st/30
14.8411th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.1317th/30
25.8925th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.9223rd/30
Opponent
49.82%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.33%11th/30
11.6811th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.757th/30
35.3612th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.5821st/30
33.04%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.16%5th/30
31.2626th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.2727th/30
50.8316th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.2224th/30
61.49%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.64%21st/30
23.6826th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.088th/30
31.8928th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.502nd/30
74.26%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.09%27th/30
11.6811th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.6625th/30
31.2612th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2516th/30
6.955th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.2621st/30
4.7415th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.8426th/30
13.2625th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.6618th/30
23.6815th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.9224th/30
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